Wed 6/5/2013. Mid-day Update.

Current SPX Position: None
Next Action: Go long at 1629.32
System Score: 7.5=Bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=4+3.5
Proposed New Score: 58%=Neutral/Bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=16+42

The System remains flat and slightly bullish. SPX has now entered my initial target zone of 1597-1609, but 1600ish was the ideal. The proposed new score has been short since 1636, but the current score has missed the ride down so far after riding most of the relentless wave up from November 2012. The proposed new score is borderline neutral-bullish since I've been debating whether to use 56% or 58% as the neutral line. Given the last 2 times 58% has happened, it seems like neutral is the better call but I'll save a final decision for when I have time to evaluate the new score performance from late 2012 thru a completed 5-10% downtrend.

Since I like to try my hand at EW as it fits with System technicals, I believe SPX is wrapping up 3ofC or 3of3 down from 1687. Utilizing my old theory of wave 3s almost always having a NOZO (no overlap zone), 1620 should not be surpassed until wave C/3 is done given my current count, and 1615 is also currently a NOZO candidate but less likely. And, looking at the waves on a minute chart (less reliable), it sure looks like SPX needs at least one 7-13pt bounce to match 2of3ofC/3 (1624-->1637) before completing the wave 3ofC/3. There is already room to do that under the 1620 NOZO. Then, of course, we'd see 4ofC/3 which probably won't be as big as 2ofC/3 (1623-->1647=24pts). If we assume wave 4 is shorter at 15pts (24*.618), then SPX needs to fall below 1605 in order to avoid overlapping 1620. Tony Caldaro has a pivot zone at 1614 +/-, so a final 3ofC/3 drop to 1595-1600 would allow for 4ofC/3 to reach that pivot. That would likely be followed by a double bottom at 1595-1600 to complete 3/C from 1687 but, if w5=w1, SPX would reach 1614-39=1575ish and, if w5=w1*.618, SPX would reach 1614-24=1590.

Since my analyses points to key support/atraction at 1600ish and 1530-1550, I think SPX will bottom for a week or more once those levels are pierced. If the 1620 NOZO is surpassed, I'll revisit my outlook. Until then, I expect SPX to bounce around 1590-1620 for at least another day or two before we get a 2-3% bounce where the System is likely to get short for what could be a downleg test of the lower target (1530-1550). Remember, this could all line up with a bottom near the Friday jobs report +/- (and maybe some impact from the Thursday ECB decision) and a top near the FOMC and OPEX events (June 19-21) and another bottom surrounding the quarter end, July 4th holiday and next jobs report or even in late July which would match a couple 9-week downtrends. All in good time. It's fun to prognosticate but more profitable to systemitize. Good fortune.