Monday, June 3, 2013

Mon 6/3/2013. Daily Update.

Current SPX Position: None
Next Action: Long at 1646.90
System Score: 8=Bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=6+2
Proposed New Score: 56%=Neutral=Trend Score + Turn Score=24+32

If SPX falls below 1618 into tomorrow mid-morning or below 1625ish on Wednesday, the Score will likely turn neutral. However, it is not difficult to count 5 complete waves 1659-->1623 and I mentioned that a 1% dead-cat bounce is fairly typical for the indicators that flashed in the last hour Friday, but 1623 is a little short of common targets and the rally should fail. So, 1659-->1623=36pts could be wave 1 or A in which case the next leg down is likely to be 36-58pts. Obviously, the 1600 target would become a minimal target zone unless SPX rallies above 1640 which it very well might. A 50-62% retracement of 1659-->1623 is 1641-1645. The market needs to bounce occasionally if it is truly on its way down to 1600ish over the next 3-5 days. Good fortune.

P.S. Somebody beat me to the thought, but I figured the 20+ week Tuesday streak would invite front-running on Monday afternoon and, looking back, it has done so most Monday afternoons for the last 2 months (last week it was Friday due to the Memorial Day holiday). SPX pretty much tagged a 50% retracement of the potential 1659 triangle high and nearly 30% of the 1687 top, so it has done enough under any count and now a wave C/3 down would target 1582-1604 (1640-[36*1to1.62]). Yes, with SPX closing at 1640, there is a good chance that range will rise. But, due to a confluence of evidence, I'm sticking with the general scenario of another downleg to 1600ish for what little that's worth.

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