Thu 6/6/2013. Daily Update.

Current SPX Position: Long at 1614.65
Next Action: Stop at 1596
System Score: 8.5=Bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=4+4.5
Proposed New Score: 62%=Bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=16+46

The System is now long. 1600ish certainly served as support and VIX closed back below the u20BB for a bullish signal but yesterday's BOW day was met with an SOS day today. So, volatile consolidation is likely for the next couple days especially with the jobs number and FOMC meeting speculation coming. There was a 10pt bounce intraday that may have been enough to satisfy my preferred EW count completing the ABC at 1598 from 1687, but another lower low is possible. If 1598 (or close to it) proves to be the temporary bottom of an ABC or 121, then a retracement of 1687 or 1659 is likely. Here are the Fib targets...
1687-->1598 38%=1632, 50%=1643, 62%=1653
1659-->1598 38%=1621, 50%=1629, 62%=1637
And, there are some minor pivots at 1625-1635 with moving averages falling below 1645. Given those potential targets and given that SPX is already at 1623, I'd say 1629-1643 looks probable. Maybe 1598-->1623+ is wave A with wave B down projected near 1600 in a flat or a 1610-1615 zigzag and then C to 1629-1643. Just one sensible scenario assuming the downtrend will resume soon. Such a scenario would probably be enough to get the System neutral-to-bearish for a short setup. However, I was expecting the jobs report to produce a top or bottom going into the FOMC meeting and OPEX (June 19-21), so it would be ideal if it produces a double bottom near 1598 Fri/Mon or the zigzag top at 1529-1543 Fri/Mon. If it is the latter, we could potentially get quite a rapid 100pt 1-week drop into FOMC/OPEX week. If it is the former, I'd expect nearly 2 weeks of choppy action at 1600-1650. Let's see what happens tomorrow.  For now, the System is long and the rest is speculation. Good fortune.