Current SPX Position: Long at 1598.32
Next Action: Stop at 1594.93 (will go short with stop at 1606.83-1610 if Score turns neutral-to-bearish)
System Score: 6=Bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=4+2
Proposed New Score: 64%=Bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=16+48
I am not feeling 100% yet but getting close. Thanks for the well wishes. The Score remains narrowly bullish. There are a couple indicators that could push it to neutral or bearish on Thursday morning, but the Score will almost certainly turn bearish by 3-4PM Thursday if SPX does not drop precipitously before then. So, the System will not currently go short at 4hr support but could be prepared to do so by the time that the Score turns neutral-to-bearish or shortly thereafter.
At 1606ish, SPX bumped into the upper end of its channel down from 1689 if you draw a line between the 1636 and 1598 bottoms with a parallel line from the 1654 top. If SPX decides to gap/break that level, it may be intent on testing the breakdown area of 1618ish where the 50dSMA and November uptrend line were breached and where the 50dSMA still currently resides. That would be a higher target than I suspected which likely raises the downside target closer to 1550 than 1530, but I'll evaluate that if it happens.
If SPX rallies to an hourly close above 1605.33 on Thursday morning, the System stop will move to 1599+ for a likely profit and the Score is much likelier to become neutral-to-bearish faster than 3-4PM setting up a short position at 1599+. If SPX stays between 1594.93 and an hourly close of 1605.33 on Thursday, the System will still be long but bearish by the close. If SPX falls to 1594.93 on Thursday before rallying to an hourly close above 1605.33, the System will stop out and possibly go short depending on the status of indicators and whether it's 3-4PM. Good fortune.
i think 1530-1550 it's only a dream. we are going up.
ReplyDeletedowntrend is over and like tony caldaro wrote yesteday we are in wawe 5 now which is going to new high. is it a valid possibility for you?
......above 1619....your sistem tell the truth....no more space for downtrend.
ReplyDeleteGiovanni, be careful to be so convinced of anything. Of course, a new high is possible. It's just not immediately probable based on my technical analyses. A bottom retest or lower low to 1530-1550 is still likelier IMHO. Short-term, bulls are in charge as the System supports, but bulls must capture and sustain the 20dSMA which lines up with the breakdown level. If that happens, then any large pullback will likely cause a bullish Score and thus bullish long signal well before the bottom is retested and probably in the 1580-1600 area.
ReplyDeleteI have been following your blog for many years. i really like the way you do your analysis and i think your sistem is really good. I'm not convinced of anything especially in the market. But i believe that this time there will be only a small pull back (wave 2 of 5). we are right now in wawe 1 of 5. this wave 2 will probably trap a lot of people hoping in a retest of the bottom. i'm short right now but i will be out before wawe 3 of 5 will begin.
ReplyDeleteof course that's only my guess. Like you say never be convinced of everything.
keep going with your great analysis of the market. I hope to exchange ideas on the market more often with you and other members here on your blog. Greetings from ITALY.