Current SPX Position: Short at 1646.69
Next Action: Stop and go long at 1598.32
System Score: 8=Bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=3+5
Proposed New Score: 62%=Bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=12+50
Nothing much changed from mid-day. The Score is a little bullish. The stop-n-go-long level is 1598.32, although I've seen this movie many times and that level is often slightly pierced before rolling over. The 1560-->1586 rally looks impulsive while the last hour pullback was choppy, so the likely count is 1560-->1586=A and 1586-->1573?=B with wave C to start at the Tuesday open or at least early morning. If so, currently, C=A at 1599 and C=A*.618 at 1589 which is basically a double top with today's high and prevents a gap fill temporarily. If SPX rallies Tuesday, the target is 1586-1600 with 1586-1593 most likely to me. If we assume as I suspect that there is one more CofC downleg and if we assume the target is 1535ish or 1550ish and if we assume 1600 won't be broken by much if any on any rally prior to the next lower low, we can reverse engineer the likely top. 1535+55Fib=1590. CofC=AofC*.62Fib at 1535+58=1593. 1550+34Fib=1584. 1550+58=1608. Those are further reasons to believe 1586-1600 is the target zone or possibly a brief spike above that. Keep in mind, AofA=54Fib and CofA=89Fib and AofC=94(near 89Fib) and CofA=AofA*0.62Fib, so perhaps this final ABC down will alternate that Fib ratio. If not, SPX will be going a lot lower which seems doubtful. I was initially saying today's rally could extend to Friday June 28 OPEX ending at 1580ish and that is still possible, but the volatility has things moving fast. In a matter of hours, we've already reached 1586 and formed a potential AB, so extending further into Friday seems unlikely unless SPX plans to exceed 1600 in a double or triple zigzag. So, I am more inclined to think SPX is going to quickly set its corrective high on Tuesday and either runaway from max pain to 1530 on Friday OPEX or make the lower low on Tues/Wed/Thu at 1530-1550 and then rally hard into 1580ish on Friday OPEX. We'll see. Good fortune.
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