Thursday, June 27, 2013

Thu 6/27/2013. Daily Update.

Current SPX Position: Long at 1598.32
Next Action: Stop and go short at 1601.88
System Score: 2.5=Bearish=Trend Score + Turn Score=3-0.5
Proposed New Score: 38%=Bearish=Trend Score + Turn Score=12+26

The Score has turned bearish and will definitely turn slightly more bearish if SPX drops a few points from current levels (I wrote that before 4PM when the Score was still 3-4 but it fell further in the last hour and I forgot to strike this sentence...that's what I get for trying to have a post ready for 4PM). However, only about half of my turn indicators are in alignment, so the signal is not as strong as it could be. I've done no statistical evaluation to determine if that is more or less bearish, so it's just an observation that "bears" watching. It does appear as though the turn indicators are not setup to align more bullish for 1-2 days. That means bears have a 1-2 day window to do a lot of price damage with less corresponding technical damage. Bears still have to take the reigns, and it doesn't guarantee a huge downdraft. I'm just pointing out the opportunity, and you've seen quite consistently that when my System catches these opportunities, they are typically either taken advantage of OR else the opposite will happen as the window expires. It also means bulls should have tough sledding until Mon/Tues, but they will likely win if they can keep things in a +/- 1% area. The System will go short at a break of 4hr support. Tomorrow is OPEX and anything goes. Although it is unlikely at this point, max option pain is in the 1570s and slightly rising, so a quick trip to 1580ish is not out of the realm of possibilities. I'm not predicting that and the exact opposite could happen, but I've seen it happen several times (for my benefit and detriment) so just want you to be protected and ready. Good fortune.

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