| The System remains long. Some short-term divergences returned today and multi-month indicator extremes remain near alarming levels. Thus, a strong pullback is likely imminent but not confirmed. Perhaps SPX will drop this week and then rally/retest/retrace into or near the FOMC meeting. Regardless, the stop and reversal level is now 1989 intra-day or a gap to 1992 or below. Although it has no significant impact on the System, I will still sometimes discuss relevant market research such as that found on the Research tab above. In that vein, I will mention that Tim Woods and Ed Dowd came up with an interesting finding that basically suggests SPX is approaching a technical crossroads likely within 0-10 days that will determine whether it goes to new highs or 20%+ lower. Cycles suggest the next low will be above the 1810 low but the following one into May could be a doozy (as supported by my discretionary spending research above). Good fortune. |
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