Monday, March 7, 2016

SPX Long From 1967, Reversal Below 1989/1992

SPX Swing System Trading
Trade Date:2016-03-01
Trade Position:Long
Trade Entry:1967
Trade Stop/Reversal:1989 intra-day (or any gap down below 1992)
Trade Profit Areas:1986-2004 gap resistance, 100SMA 2000 and 200SMA 2022
Indicator Divergences:Negative
Indicator Extremes:Very Negative
SMA Setup:Very Negative
Important Events:FOMC decision Wed March 16th
Trade Notes:
The System remains long. Some short-term divergences returned today and multi-month indicator extremes remain near alarming levels. Thus, a strong pullback is likely imminent but not confirmed. Perhaps SPX will drop this week and then rally/retest/retrace into or near the FOMC meeting. Regardless, the stop and reversal level is now 1989 intra-day or a gap to 1992 or below. Although it has no significant impact on the System, I will still sometimes discuss relevant market research such as that found on the Research tab above. In that vein, I will mention that Tim Woods and Ed Dowd came up with an interesting finding that basically suggests SPX is approaching a technical crossroads likely within 0-10 days that will determine whether it goes to new highs or 20%+ lower. Cycles suggest the next low will be above the 1810 low but the following one into May could be a doozy (as supported by my discretionary spending research above). Good fortune.



SPX/SPY Trade History
Trade history only includes the initial entry and final exit prices, not any profit-taking and reloading in between, so mileage may vary.
PositionOpenPriceClosePricePtsTotal
Long2016-03-011967????
Short2016-02-2319382016-03-011967-29+62
Long2016-02-1218472016-02-231938+91+91


Chart from Monday

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