Tuesday, March 8, 2016

Short at 1992, Reverse at 2030

SPX Swing System Trading
Trade Date:2016-03-08
Trade Position:Short
Trade Entry:1992
Trade Stop/Reversal:2030 intra-day (subject to change at the close)
Trade Profit Areas:1930s 20SMA and 50SMA and 1932-1947 gap region
Indicator Divergences:Negative
Indicator Extremes:Very Negative
SMA Setup:Very Negative
Important Events:FOMC decision Wed March 16th
Trade Notes:
The System is now short. It looks like 1930-1950 will be a good target and partial profit-taking area. The stop/reversal level and indicators will be re-evaluated after the close, because the System is willing to reverse trades on back-to-back days albeit infrequently. As I've done in past years with my systems, I plan to only record trade prices that I post in near real-time or had previously setup such as my stop/reversal levels. The System should have and would have entered on the gap up from 1932 to 1947 rather than waiting for the run up to 1967 in which case the trade history below would be even 40pts better, but I was slow to process the indicator values correctly and this is still a work in progress. Based on my manual back-testing of CY2015-2016 and parts of CY2014 and CY2008 and other years, the trade winning percentage has exceeded 67% AND winning trades have been much larger than losing trades on average but there were some 2-3 week 2-3% drawdowns mixed in and only recent and future results will matter. Off to a good start. Good fortune.



SPX/SPY Trade History
Trade history only includes the initial entry and final exit prices, not any profit-taking and reloading in between, so mileage may vary.
PositionOpenPriceClosePricePtsTotal
Short2016-03-081992????
Long2016-03-0119672016-03-081992+25+87
Short2016-02-2319382016-03-011967-29+62
Long2016-02-1218472016-02-231938+91+91


Chart from Monday

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