CY2016 versus CY2008

A couple months ago, I posited that CY2015 was following a very similar script to CY2007. McClellan apparently agrees and charts the analogy into CY2016. Read here. Continuing his contention for a January pause right about now, the analogy would best fit if SPX 1993/2005 is not reached for long if at all just like the previous pivot low was not quite reached in CY2008. The max pain option peg for Friday OPEX has now fallen to SPX 2040 and could fall slightly further, but obviously SPX 1993/2005 is well short of that. So, we could get a runaway OPEX situation into mid-week testing SPX 1867 but, due to the odds of a bounce with such extreme technical indicators, I still favor a sizable rally like CY2008. However, my confidence in approaching the unfilled gap at SPX 2045 near OPEX max pain is much reduced. If the CY2008 analogy sticks, SPX could start a rally Mon/Tues perhaps testing the OEW 1973 or 1993 pivots and that rally could last only 2-3 days which would fit OPEX week often peaking Wed-Fri. If that occurs, we could quickly see a test of SPX 1867 in January or worse before we get a good multi-week rally. I'm not really sure which way this is going to go. Hourly technical indicators are extremely oversold, but I'm ever-more dubious that bulls will be given the chance to get out of any positions opened above SPX 2000 and we'll need many surprise down moves to reach 1750 and likely 1600 by April +/-. So, after the next sizable bounce (2%+), I am ready to only trade short positions as triggered until my System gets bullish in April/May and avoid any bullish signals and long trades in the interim due to mini-crash downside-surprise risk. My previous post charts my research and projections thru CY2016. Good fortune.