Update Jan 8, 2016 12:20PM EST:
The trend is still down on all timeframes and the hourly score has cooled off a bit to medium oversold. I may regret it, but, despite my System not officially calling for a long position, I opened a speculative small long position in the 1940s and I may go to 50% or so if SPX falls below 1930, but I won't open a full long position until the System indicates an uptrend without extreme overbought conditions. And, I will exit the long position even at a loss if SPX gets overbought at all before a long position is triggered. Currently, a bullish swing would require SPX 1990+ but that will change to today's high (currently 1960) at the close. Trying to read the EW/pattern tea leaves, SPX 1933 could be an EDT low or perhaps one more dip to 1930ish is needed. If so, a quick trip to 1990 could be seen and then we'll see. Good fortune.
Update Jan 8, 2016 4PM EST:
Bad finish. Potential EDT was eliminated below SPX 1923. This might finally be a capitulation of sorts, but now we're not all that far from the 1900ish and 1860ish targets with a weekend of risk. I can see Monday gapping up or down more than 1% and even a mini-crash. All trends are still down. Hourly indicators are back to extremely oversold (-90% with -100% likely if SPX trades flat-to-down the first hour Monday). I'll wait for Monday's action, but I think an upside target of SPX 2040s next week needs to be re-evaluated albeit SPX 1990-1995+ could easily get us there. Good weekend!!!
Hi S2. Great posts the last few weeks, thank you for continuing to share your vast expertise. My model forecast seems to be on track as well. Back at Thanksgiving in your comment section I called for “CY2015 ending flat/slightly down”. Also at the time I forecasted the parabolic decline to start at “the end of 12/15”. So far so good. I’m expecting a downward acceleration into next week.
ReplyDeleteSince I find your work quite remarkable, I’ve continued to review in detail many of your older posts. I read with great interest your early Oct discussions about a low for the upcoming bear move at around the 1996 Dow lows of 5170. A newly compiled sub-model of mine indicates the low for this bear market to be at Dow 5340, which is very near to your value, but more importantly very near the closing vice intraday lows for mid-Jul 1996. Interestingly, my models have arrived at the 5340 target with absolutely no correlation inputs related to any price/time data from 1996, so I find your substantiating analysis very intriguing, since it presumably arises from completely different source data.
Brigadoon, Good calls. I'll revisit that old post. I consider my entire life a work in progress...always learning and improving. I've let my big picture secular bearishness affect my short-term cyclical trading over the years, but things seem to be converging in 2016 and I feel like I'm a smarter trader. Even if we are right about a 50-80% downtrend in CY2016, you know the market will throw the kitchen sink at our psyche. Be careful my friend and good luck!
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