Convergence for Drop and Pop into Nov 20 +/-?

I was dead opposite wrong short-term for a test of the 1700s in October. Intermediate-term, the discretionary spending indicator signal for a significant 8%+ top between late October and late November is still very much in play. And, all of my long-term analysis is still in play including S2EW DRSI, Magical 48%, bull-Bear Market Fib Pattern, annual Dow reversals (not quite triggered - need 15341) as well as the analyses of others smarter than me: Dow Theory, T-Theory and Woods/Eliades/Other Cycles. Find more of my long-term analysis here.

My exponential parabola theory is the one long-term projection that needs tweaking. I previously charted that the 2007-2009 bear market and 2009-2015 bull market each exponentially surpassed the rate of change in the previous bear and bull markets and thus 2015-2016 could continue that parabolic exponential trend. However, alternation is possible in which case the 2000-2002 parabola could be followed (this option was drawn as a blue parabola on the chart and SPX perfectly pierced it last week) OR we may need to draw the parabola starting from 2116 (or the ultimate November high) if we believe that concludes the bull market count. Obviously, since SPX is currently matching the 2000-2002 parabolic downtrend almost perfectly, we cannot ignore that the drop may take much longer than I initially projected, but we could also see hybrid behavior where SPX starts like 2000-2001 and ends like 2008-2009. We'll need to judge which parabola to follow after the next significant drop and rally.

Short-term, the current SPX situation looks very similar to a combination of Dec 9-10 2014 after an almost identical 6-week 250-point rally AND August 18-19 2015 as SPX sat just above key price support and the 200SMA. Given the moving average configuration and option pain etc, I suspect we'll get a move lower to the 2020-2040 region that Tony Caldaro is projecting or even a little lower to 2000 +/-.  SPX fell about 60pts in the mentioned setup in December which would be 2015 +/-. A Fib 38-50% retracement of 1872 would be in the 2000-2020 area. Since algobots appear to be in charge with all the repeat moves in recent years, this seems like a very plausible scenario. To add to the Dec/Aug similarities, the BOW/SOS indicator has been producing a lot of BOW days recently and that has helped propel SPX and prevent large down moves but it does seem those indicators eventually get overbought like other indicators as happened in Dec/Aug. We also have a short-term daily trend swing, dis-embedded stochastics and a bearish MACD crossover to technically support a downtrend with the 200SMA and August breakdown level there to potentially accelerate the trend. However, the price-volume magnet at 2040-2080, the BOW days, the 50dSMA near SPX 2000, Fib levels and max option pain around 2050 should limit the damage to 2000-2020 +/- with TRIN and p/c ratios pushing fully into overly-bearish readings.

If that short-term scenario plays out, then the next rally should head back to the 2040-2080 price-volume max option pain area at a minimum likely near Friday Nov 20 OPEX. If that rally ultimately does not make new highs above 2116, I believe the next downtrend will be a doozy and likely test the 1700-1750 convergence area I thought might be reached in October. However, such a downtrend beginning in late November or early December could easily bounce around into end of year with significant damage being delayed until the Jan/Feb time-frame or perhaps within days of the December Fed announcement. At that point, we should have a better idea if the Dow annual reversal has been triggered and which parabolic downtrend projection is being followed and whether or not sentiment and technical support those projections. Good fortune.