Big Picture Analysis from Year 1831...SPX 600ish targeted in year 2016

I have a special treat for you today. I skimmed about half my posts since year 2010. I pulled out much of my key research on stock market history going back as far as 1831 and I updated some of it to reflect recent years. The data is compelling. The storm has only begun.
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Here are links to old posts with summary in parentheses.
S2EW Analysis - 1932&1974 ended wave 2s (year 2000 ended heart of wave 3, 2002/2007/2016 are all part of a wave 4 corresponding to the 1974 wave 2)
S2EW analysis back to 1831!!!  (notice the key RSI lows are every ~40 years, 1857, 1896, 1932, 1974, 2010-2016?)
Magical 48% (Bear Depth Analysis....45-48% corrections are extremely common going back to year 1900)
SPX and the 3 Bears - Parable or Parabola? (Bull-Bear Parabola Analysis...the rate of bull market inclines and beark market declines have been growing exponentially)
Bull Market Fib Pattern...Next, bear getting ready to roar like 1923? (Bull-Bear Fib Patterns....suggest bear market underway if SPX breaks below 1822-1851)
Annual Dow Reversals Back to Year 1896 (annual reversals have been extremely bearish about 80% of the time and fakes 10% of the time. The level to watch is Dow 15341 by the end of 2015)
10 Reasons to Retest SPX 667 in 2016 (other well-respected market prognosticators have objective technical systems that have already triggered MASSIVE bear market calls as of August 2015 including Tim Woods, Peter Eliades, Terry Laundry and Robert Rhea)
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The following posts offer historical and recent technicals favoring an SPX low around 1700 soon (1675-1750).
Bear Market Initial Retracement Study Back to 1900
AAPL supports SPX 1700
Why a Triangle Wave 4/X to from Aug 24 to Oct 16
How a Triangle Wave 4/X to October 16th
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OK. Let me coalesce the key research above
1. Time: Target Year 2016 low
a. There is an approximate 40-year cycle (every 36-42 years since the early 1800s) that points to 2010-2016 +/- as the low
b. Most bear market downtrends last 6 months to 3 years with 1-2 years being most common pointing to a low in 2016-2017
c. The exponential parabolic nature of the last 5 bull-bear markets should lead to a faster, bigger drop ending in 2016 if May 2015 was the top
d. Other market cycles including the 4-year cycle, business/recession cycle, presidential cycle etc favor a low in 2016-2017
e. The whole thing about years ending in a certain number doesn't even prevent a 2016-2017 low as my research shows with 1857, 1896, 1932, 1974, 1987, 2002 and 2009 all being important lows including nearly every digit and there are more.
2. Price: Target SPX low below 667 and Dow 5000-6000
a. The magical 48% gets SPX to the 1100s or lower
b. The exponential parabola suggests SPX 667 will be broken and quickly
c. Wave 4s often retrace to previous wave 4s and My S2EW analysis favors year 2000 as the heart of a wave 3 top with 1995 likely being the no overlap zone of wave 3. This all suggests Dow should not drop much if any lower than the year 1996 low at 5170.
d. The previous lows in this secular bear market were Dow 7197 and 6470. Those will also be targets but slightly lower if the trend continues. For SPX, those numbers are 769 and 667, so maybe 565 is next.
e. There are 3 different uptrend lines I charted in one of my old posts from the early 1900s that all converge in the Dow 5000-5500 region +/- over the next year.
f. My old 10-reason post favors a retest/break of the lows for Dow/SPX in order to get P/Es into the single digits as has happened in 9 of the last 12 decades and we're in the longest bull market and P/E stretch in history, so it is bound to end soon.
g. My S2EW/dRSI analysis shows that dynamic RSI for wave 4s usually falls near the lows of corresponding wave 2s but they rarely have a lower RSI except in triangles. It appears that the year 1974 low was a wave 2 and year 2016-2017 would be the corresponding end of wave 4. The 2009 RSI low actually fell low enough to be counted as a wave 4, and I originally thought the 2009 low was the A wave of an ABC into 2010-2012. But, there is room for the RSI to fall lower and some people are still counting an ABC from year 2007 and the timing was not right for an ultimate low in year 2009. And, to support that interpretation, amazingly, dRSI in this entire bull market has not surpassed dRSI into year 2007 and is way below year 2000. My spreadsheet projections for year-end Dow prices suggest Dow could close year 2016 at 9000-12000 without breaking the 1974 dRSI low. And, keep in mind my system is not meant to be an exact science so perhaps 8000 would not even be out of the question. In any case, you'll notice that is not very close to the Dow low of 5000-6000 that I am projecting, but 5000-6000 is an intra-year projection whereas 8000-12000 is a year-end projection. The year-end closing price surrounding the last 2 bear market intra-year lows were 8000-10000 which would fit my dRSI expectations perfectly. Look for that pattern to repeat.
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Take a look at my S2EW chart below. You can read my old posts to better understand how my dynamic RSI works but it is essentially a modified RSI value based on the trend length being analyzed. You'll notice a few things on the chart.
1. Year 2000 is far and away the highest dRSI since year 1831 making it an obvious wave 3.
2. Years 1857, 1896, 1932 and 1974 likely mark wave 2 lows every 40 years. You can see the dRSI lows every 40 years have been in the same vicinity with a slight uptrend.
3. You can see the year 2007 and 2015 dRSI highs are progressively and massively lower than the year 2000 dRSI and lower than the 1929 and 1966 wave 1 highs.
4. The circled area to the right includes a projection of Dow 16000 at year-end 2015 and 9400 at year-end 2016 with chop higher after that. Obviously, those numbers can vary. If my big picture expectations play out, we should see the 2009 dRSI low retested at a minimum, and the year 2016-2017 dRSI low is likely to fall somewhere between that and the 1974 dRSI low probably at one of the 3 trend lines drawn.
5. Although not displayed, you can surmise that we have at least 3 more wave 4 lows and a final wave 5 to go to finish the all-time USA bull market. That should cover 140 years at a minimum to year 2160+ (year 2020 + [40*3 + a 20+-year wave 5]=2160+). I am highly unlikely to be trading in 40 years to see if my dRSI tool tests the dRSI lows we see in year 2016-2017. But, if this tool works this time around, perhaps I will leave it to my heirs. dRSI retests do not necessarily equate to price retests as seen when comparing the year 1974 Dow price lows with the year 2002/2007/?2016? price lows.

In one of my old posts, I mentioned that demographics project economic hardships for China and India starting in 2035 and 2050 just like happened to Japan in the 1990s and USA in the 2000s. So, it makes sense to me that if year 2016 is the secular bear market price low, we'll see another 10-20 year period of malaise ending around year 2056. The good news is that once the low occurs in the next year or so, we should see another 25-35 years of bull market action. The bad news is that it will be aweful until then, and just like years 1932-1942 and 1974-1982, it may take until 2024+ until the stock market really takes off as Chin and India take over the USA as the world's primary economic powers.

Short-to-intermediate term, I am anticipating an October low near SPX 1700 with a possible bearish sideways triangle ending around October 16th followed by year-end consolidation with a likely sharp rally high in November and then a collapse to the SPX 1100s for starters in Q1/Q2 2016 and a trip below SPX 667 likely. I got some pretty good feedback in 2010 when I introduced S2EW dRSI. Good fortune.

Here is a re-post of my exponential parabolic projection which fits the above analysis.