Magical 48%

If I asked most traders to name the largest bear markets in terms of percentage drops, most of them would name 1929, 1973, 2000 and 2007.

In 1929, Dow fell 48% in about 2 months (~382-->199). It then rallied 48% followed by stair-steps lower for 2 years.

In 1973-1974, Dow fell 46% (1061-->570) and then made a slightly lower low.

In 2000-2002, SPX fell 50% (1553-->776) and then made a slightly lower low. It then rallied 48% before getting stuck for a year.

In 2007-2008, SPX fell 47% (1576-->820), then made a couple lower lows for a few months.

Although it's worth keeping in mind this analysis mixes Dow and SPX as the current bear market unfolds, all 4 bear markets shared an approximate 48% drop into their primary RSI14 momentum low with the last 3 only going on to make slightly lower lows for another few months. 1929-1932 is the only one that fell another 48% and then some.

There are certainly ways to poke holes in this analysis, but I'm looking for something to guide me if we get an accelerated parabolic bear market as I have been proposing. This repetitive 48% bear market move tells me 1100ish could have historical importance and other technicals confirm it. A 48% drop for SPX from 2135 lands at 1110. Most people mark the most significant low of the bull market as 1075 in October 2011. There is also a pivot at 1100 and tons of price-volume at 1050-1350. And, there is a channel line parallel to 1576-->2135 at 667-->1150 in Q1 +/- as well as a lower Andrew's pitchfork for the last bear market at 1100 in Q1 +/-.

So, 1100ish seems to be a good bottom target. If the 1973, 2000 and 2007 bear markets are followed, SPX would then make a lower low or 2 at 900-1100 before finishing. If the 1929 bear market is followed, SPX would then rally 48% just beyond the old 1576 high before falling another 48% near 800 and then some.

I extended my 2015-2016 parabola down near the 667 low. It essentially goes vertically down at around SPX 1000 in April/May. If past behavior is repeated  for this bear market, SPX will complete its momentum low months before the final parabolic low. If SPX 2133 is the proper top to use or if I add margin for error on the starting point on the parabolic curve, I can end up with a parabolic ending point in June-October.
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Putting all my recent analyses together...
1. SPX is likely to fall 48% to 1100ish to end the primary momentum low for the bear market
2. SPX is likely to make a lower low or 2 for months after that with a chance of continuing much lower after a retracement to the old 1576 high
3. The exponential parabolic nature of the last 5 bull-bear markets suggests the current bear market will end in early April +/- but I am using April/May. Consumer discretionary spending held up this month, but if it drops much at all in the next 1-2 months, my spending indicator will project an SPX bottom in April/May.
4. My consumer spending indicator officially is projecting a significant top in late October to late November.
5. The Mon/Tues candle action suggested SPX would rally for 1-3+ days (actually 1 of the 8 was 4+ days but I miscounted) and then fall for 1-3 days with a decent chance of a larger 8-9 day drop.
6. 1685ish is the current level of the bull market's uptrend line rising to 1740ish by end of year.
7. A hugely important Fed decision awaits us in mid-September

Based on this, I will offer up 2 projected paths for the next couple months.
A=2135-->2044
B=2044-->2105
C=2105-->1800-1850 next week
X=1800-1850-->1950-2000 near September FOMC and OPEX
A=1950-2000-->1700ish trend line test after FOMC/OPEX
B=1700ish-->1850ish into spending-projected top late October to early November
then acceleration down to 1100 or even 600-800

OR

A=2135-->2044
B=2044-->2105
C=2105-->1700ish in 2 weeks bouncing slightly into the Sep FOMC meeting
X=1700ish-->1850-1950 probably triangulating into Oct/Nov top after FOMC rally
then acceleration down to 1100 or even 600-800

Of course, if SPX rallies too far above 2010 in the short-term and does not at least retest the 1867 low in the next couple weeks, I'll probably be forced to abandon this line of thought, but it is a real data-based option on the table not to be ignored. Good fortune.