Mid-May bottom off the table?

Pattern-wise, SPX has not behaved as though it ended an EDT in late April. Perhaps it completed a final leg today or needs another rally to SPX 2130ish (max 2179). Price-wise, SPX re-entered my original 2115-2135 projected range yet neither Dow or SPX made a new all-time high. Time-wise, the mid-to-late April top still stands for SPX but a mid-May bottom (this week or next) is losing odds and the 3% drop into last week was not large enough to count as a successful projection.

The SPY BOW days Tues/Wed of last week proved to be prescient evidence for a rally. Today was a small BOW day as well. Friday May 15th is monthly OPEX with max pain around 2100. Heavy price-volume, key moving averages, a gap just under 2090 and pivot support/resistance all exist at 2075-2100. Those factors favor SPX being attracted to the 2100 price area this week.

My basic technical analysis post last week discussed a few indicators which have now repositioned into a precarious state again making Tues/Wed potentially big-move days. First, daily MACD is now kissing the underside of a potential crossover. These often turn into death kisses preceding swift moves down so the risk is high but of course a bullish crossover is possible. Second, daily RSI has fallen back just above 50 and that is often the level for the market to make a large move in one direction or the other. Third, SPX continues to make lower highs with VIX making higher lows.

So, if BOW days and 2075-2100 provide bullish support while OPEX provides a magnet towards 2100 and some daily/weekly technicals, price failures and divergences provide bearish support, I am left to think this week will either make an all-time high (possibly after testing 2090-2100 first) and then fall back to 2100-2110 OR this week will significantly retrace/retest the recent 2068 low and then bounce back near 2100 followed by the real move next week. Regardless, my mid-May bottom projection (typically 8%+ but never less than 4%) is not looking good unless a real breach of 2070 were to start a tailspin quickly and Greece might be the only thing left to catalyze that. Good fortune.