Thursday, May 14, 2015

Do or Die or Delay

Tuesday did drop 1% but recovered at the 50dSMA in the 2075-2100 support zone. Now, SPX has rallied back to its declining tops (2126, 2121, 2118, ?2115?). Dow is about 60pts from an all-time high (ATH). The BOW-day halo effect should be expiring today. SPY Friday OPEX max pain tomorrow is still around 2100. Sometimes reaching max pain late Wednesday (as we did) or Thursday is sufficient but it could exert influence into Friday. Transports actually broke key support intraday (bottoms that had built up as SPX pivoted higher at 1970-1980 and 2040 etc) but has recovered intraday as well. My SPX hourly technicals (my old S2 system) have reset overly bullish to the point that a reversal below yesterday's 2097 low (trigger price would rise with SPX hourly closes higher) would be a get-short signal, not a get-flat signal. Daily technicals look like they may eliminate some bearish setups if SPX can maintain its rally into tomorrow but the setups may be reinforced if today's rally fails. Some people are calling for a slight new high and rapid failure to complete an EDT. So, here we are at another juncture with a potentially bearish technical setup or a destruction of that setup. Breakout or failure? Even if we see a failure, will it merely lead to further consolidation? Even if we see a breakout, will it last more than a few hours or days? Do or Die or Delay? Personally, I think the reward-risk ratio is still heavily weighted to the downside, so I continue to look for safe short entry points and just opened a fresh short position at SPX 2114 with stop at 2127 (about .5% loss to be lowered to today's high if SPX retests 2100 or lowered if SPX rallies hard into the close) and targets of 2040ish and 1960-2000. Good fortune.

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