Friday, February 13, 2015

EDT or Blowoff Top?

I mentioned in my last post 10 days ago that "the slightly favored projection would be a rally (or perhaps sideways/EDT action) into late-March/early-April followed by an 8%+ 4-6 week drop."

I am warming up to SPX currently being in wave C of an EDT (ABCDE). Why?
1. 3-wave moves since October 2014. Oct 1820 to Dec 2090 is clearly 3 waves. Some like OEW could argue the last part into 2092 was part of a failed flat, but a flat wave 2, a 44% wave 2 retracement and a "failed" flat are all low odds especially in combination. Dec 2090 to Feb 1980 is also clearly choppy and overlapping.
2. EDT rules as commonly accepted are a fit so far. 3 wave moves. No triangle wave B. Zigzag leg A. Now we'll see if we get a zigzag C and E.
3. A larger correction is due as technical indicators diverge and weaken while sentiment remains fairly bullish despite concerning economic news and a withdrawing Fed. Even without technical or fundamental or bull-market-length considerations, history suggests a 10%+ correction will occur this year and March/April is the most common reversal point. And, although we are well beyond the typical time frame for an 80%+ retracement of old broken highs (SPX 1576 from 2007 in this case), odds and logic favor it soon.
4. Heavy price-volume support around 1860 and the EDT starting point of 1820 align well for an initial target range. From SPX 2150-2200, that would be a healthy 15-20% correction.
5. T-Theory Confidence Indicator from the late great Terry Laundry has been building a HUGE divergence for 6+ months much like a rubber band being pulled back, and the largest corrections since year 2000 have occurred under less than these conditions.
6. Timing fits the 8%+ reversal projection in late-March to early-May. 1820-->2090 took ~11 weeks and 2090-->1980 took ~5 weeks.

If the rallies and time frames keep narrowing as typical in EDTs, I see 5-6 weeks of C-wave rally into March 6/13 followed by 2-3 weeks of D-wave 5% pullback into late March followed by a brief final E-wave rally into early April and then a 4-6 week 10-20% correction. I can also see the EDT pattern shortening to mid-March or extending to early May which are the extremes of my spending-lag reversal time frame, but the path I laid out seems most likely. If you see an EDT pattern being followed into mid-March, the main question will become whether or not wave C or E is completing and how many more weeks it could last.

Of course, there are alternative patterns including a blowoff top scenario, but I'll be preparing to benefit from a 4-5% drop and a 10-20% drop if the market continues to setup an EDT. Good fortune.

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