The market continues to support the late-March/early-April top scenario, but the entire early March to early May timeframe is at risk so we'll be able to pinpoint it better as the evidence rolls in.
SPX 2132ish would create A=C from SPX 1980 possibly completing the C leg of an ABCDE EDT. That would likely complete next week forming an 11-week A wave, 5-week B wave and 5-week C wave setting up wave D and E to complete in March/April. If a more standard 5-wave impulse pattern is in play from SPX 1980 as opposed to the EDT from SPX 1820, we should see a deeper 50%+ retracement in March followed by a blowoff move. However, in favoring the EDT scenario for the time being, I think a pattern and price similar to 2130-->2070-->2150 ending in late March or early April fits best.
All my scenarios favor a minor top any day but probably after another 1% rally over the next week followed by a 50-100pt drop in March that will be fully retraced ahead of a major top later in March/April possibly extending into May especially if the March retracement is 4%+. Many of the technical details that go into my projections are discussed in the previous couple posts but the primary basis is a proven consumer discretionary-spending lag. There is also a 9-month VIX uptrend line just above 12 with VIX currently just above 13.13, and to get near VIX=12 I think SPX cannot afford a 5% drop and must continue making new highs which likewise fits my preferred scenario. Good fortune.
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