Dead cat bounce!?!

SPX hit 1926, the lower end of my projected range of 1935 +/- 10. Now, the 1965 price-volume region and  key moving averages and pivots at 1975-1985 are serving as resistance. If SPX can break through those, it will probably make a run at 2020+. However, until then, I am playing it as a dead-cat bounce.

Why? Aside from long-term stats I've discussed about bad breadth, growing divergences, bull market lengths, seasonality, breaking ATH by 1+ year and 10%+ leading to breakout backtests since year 1900, the T-Theory Confidence Indicator, EW, rates/QE etc, there was also a recent timing pivot based on my discretionary spending indicator. SPX should have made a significant top (historically 8-10%+ but the last 2 cases have been 4-5%) approximately 20-22 weeks from the beginning of May targeting September 8th-26th. From that time window, SPX has dropped 4-5% again with small caps much more, so the signal could already be fulfilled but since so many world markets and technicals have soured, I lean towards the market behaving more like it has as a whole from 2007. There are currently no upcoming spending pivots in either direction and the next one will likely be a bottom projection for 6+ months from now.

Based on historical conditions coming together, a 62%+ and likely 80%+ retracement of 1576 is in the cards in probably <= Fib 23.6% of the time since that breakout. So, the probable price window for a bottom is 1550-1750 and the probable time window for a bottom is Nov 2014-Jan 2015. What happens in between is a lot more difficult. There is obvious support at 1900-1910 with the 1906 pivot and 200dSMA. And, there appears to be best long-term support at 1850ish and 1650ish, so all those areas should see decent bounces. If SPX follows the year 1987 model, it could drop near 1900 and then bounce one more time to the current 1970s price area, but I'm not sure we'll get such a big bounce if other markets like Russell 2000 break their H&S neckline and such analogies are more miss than hit.

For now, another SPY BOW day is brewing to prevent a collapse, so 1926-->1978 may have been wave A with B today/tomorrow and C completing later this week at 1978+. Good fortune.