1-week bottom??? lol

UPDATE Oct 10 4:20PM EST:
Dow has now pierced its 200dSMA but still not broken its August low. The SPX August low and 200dSMA happen to both reside around 1905 which SPX closed just above. As a result, SPX left us hanging for my 2 one-week scenarios: bounce to 1950+ into Friday OPEX or drop to 1850-1875 into Friday OPEX. I was leaning 60/40 towards the 1-week rally yesterday and I'm prone to lean the other way now, but I think it's fair to reserve judgment until the first hour or two on Monday morning. There is certainly a lot of downside risk despite many oversold technicals. SPY did end with a large BOW day today, and the one that disappeared yesterday at the last minute was perhaps a sign of more weakness to come. Let's remember that for next time. Good weekend.
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UPDATE Oct 10 10:30AM EST:
Nasdaq hit its 200dSMA and Dow is within about 20pts. SPX is not much further at about 6pts away. Russell 2000 is potentially completing a 5th wave EDT. VIX spiked up to next resistance at 21-22. I can't say the count is real clear and yesterday's BOW day disappeared at the last minute (not sure what that means even though I've seen it a few times), but I think the market now has a great opportunity to start the 1-week rally I gave 60/40 odds. If SPX manages to break 1906, I think the alternate scenario of a runaway downtrend into late next week takes favor. Good fortune.
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A pullback retracement today is not surprising but the size is a bit. Dow made a new low and SPX/RUT are close. If one counts yesterday's rally as impulsive and today's drop as impulsive, there is really only 1 EW count that makes sense of that: a flat ending yesterday. Flats are most often seen in wave Bs and 4s in my experience. A wave 2 is possible and lends itself to the nested 1-2 EW count but that's a tough expectation with sentiment and technicals already so oversold unless an outside event strikes. A wave 4 is unlikely with all the overlap on the way down from SPX 2019. That leaves us with a probable wave B. So, yesterday's 1925 low was likely still part of ABCXAB with a B flat completing yesterday and C starting today. That final C wave could be done (or nearly done) today OR it could be merely 1ofC.

Either way, SPX is likely to retrace 50-62% of yesterday's 1970 high. If SPX rallies higher than 1950-1960, it is likely correcting a completed ABCXABC pattern (2019-->1925/1930 so far) in which case it will follow the 1987 pattern and exceed 1970/1978 into the middle or end of next week (remember Friday OPEX max pain falling near 1970-1980). If SPX fails to break 1950-1960 with overhead price-volume and moving average resistance, it will likely finish 3-4-5 of C down in the 1850-1875 area near OPEX.

You may have noticed that next week's Friday OPEX is a focal point for my next pivot projection. SPX will either relieve oversold technicals for the next week and then begin a larger downtrend and probably eclipse a key pivot or two to suck in bulls OR it will get massively oversold for the next week requiring a much longer relief rally after that. About 1 to 3 monthly OPEX days per year end as runaways from max pain rather than toward it, and I think we'll get that next month if not this month.

I am giving 60/40 odds to those 2 scenarios in favor of a rally into OPEX. One indicator supporting a rally into OPEX is another big BOW day happening today...so far. There were a couple of other BOW days in the last week which I mentioned would likely prevent a collapse and they did slow the bleeding, but they only tend to have an effect for about 3 days so another BOW day is needed. It probably wouldn't prevent a retest of 1906 but should prevent a 1-week collapse to 1850-1875 in the more immediate bearish scenario. Having said that, panic ignores oversold readings and there are a lot of H&S necklines and 200dSMAs that are in danger of breaking so be careful. Good fortune.