Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Wed 8/28/2013. Mid-day Update.

At the risk of leaving profits on the table, I am moving the stop up to 1647. The Score is bearish, so the System gives us the flexibility to move the stop up to 1% above 4hr resistance. 1648 is about 0.5% above 4hr resistance and just above yesterday's 1644 and 1646 intraday pivots. Even if we don't get a new low, I will likely lower that stop back down to 1640 if SPX establishes an intraday top today and drops back closer to 1630. Since we have seen more than the typical 6pt rally from the 1670 top, there is a good chance a decent bottom is in but it's not inconclusive so I'll give SPX more leash while the Score is still bearish which could change tomorrow or near 1650. Good fortune.
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6 comments:

  1. UnknownAugust 28, 2013 at 12:43 PM

    do yout see any possibility for the sp to top today around 1645 and then go down to 1570sh by the Fomc meeting in September 13th?

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  2. S2August 28, 2013 at 1:46 PM

    Giovanni,
    I think the Syria and oil situation opens the door to that. The market is vulnerable because there is recognition that rates have probably bottomed, the Fed has probably topped and the US economy, world economy and government spending will not pick up the slack and will probably exacerbate the situation. The large downtrends for years have typically been 4-5 weeks or 9-10 weeks and the 1st week of September +/- fits 4-5 weeks. My opinion is that breaking 1620ish (more than a quick pierce) would be a bad sign. It's hard to say how long a consolidation/bounce could last with potentially explosive news in front of us...1-2 days or 1-2 weeks.

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  3. UnknownAugust 28, 2013 at 2:29 PM

    thanks. tecnically speaking i see a b bounce of C right now and then c of C down to 1570. Is it compatible with yours indicators?

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  4. S2August 28, 2013 at 2:47 PM

    I prefer a wave 2/B rally to 1670-1690 from the 1620s for 1-2 weeks, but the potential news catalysts and low-volume on-edge holiday-type market would allow for a shorter smaller bounce and more bearish extremes. Since today's bounce has already traveled 14pts, your count would be a very possible fit if SPX trades back below 1627 and would justify a slightly higher downside target perhaps near the channel line I mentioned in the 1580s or the 200dSMA at 1560 (your 1570 is smack dab in between).

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  5. S2August 28, 2013 at 2:56 PM

    Giovanni, In your count, the final C=A at 1600ish currently (near 1605 pivot). Or C=A*1.62 at 1575ish. If 1627 is broken today or tomorrow, I like that count better than a larger degree wave 3/C down. My Score is likely to turn neutral tomorrow so SPX likely needs to avoid going much higher than it already has today if a more immediate bearish count is to prevail. Still, the TRIN spike and other technical extremes would likely keep any downtrend from lasting more than a few days. A quick drop to 1560-1600 through Labor Day? Possible if 1627 is broken quickly and especially if Syria ignites. One thing supporting this is no buying pressure the last few down days.

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  6. UnknownAugust 28, 2013 at 3:36 PM

    i think 1627 will be broken tomorrow and the target ( 1575 ) will be reached early next week.( they are talking about an attack to syria thursday night).
    than rally into the fomc meeting? Could be.

    thank you for sharing your thougths.

















    0 will be reached monday or tuesday

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