Stop-n-go-short level is still at 4hr support which has risen to 1659.89. SPX is not spiking to the 1670s like it needs to for a wave 3 of A...yet.
Update 1:15PM EST - The stop-n-go-short level will rise to 1664.45+ if SPX closes an hour above 1668.56. I revisited my DRSI readings on the Dow and they are now way too high to support the wave 4 scenario I suggested was possible Thu/Fri. That doesn't mean it can't happen but the odds are strongly against it. So, if we assume the downtrend has further to go as many technical indicators support, then the question is whether or not the current rally to 1670ish is the end or just counter-trend wave A. Based on the handful of blogs and articles I read, a ton of people are looking to short around 1675-1685. So, Mr. Market could very well surprise the majority by stopping around 1670 or rallying up to the 1690s to get some more longs on board and flush the weak bears. If the next big downtrend begins Mon/Tues, the common 4-5 week timeframe is back on the table targeting Labor Day +/- a few days for a bottom. Then, maybe SPX would form a series of choppy nested 1-2 waves up heading into the mid-September Fed meeting. Just one possible path. A rally to the 1690s would obviously change the script. Good fortune.
No comments:
Post a Comment