Wed 8/21/2013. Mid-day Update.

Update 2:15PM EST: Fed minutes out. Mini panic. Looks like a possible multi-day EDT to me. System stop not triggered...lowering it temporarily to 1637 (2pts below panic low) but will raise quickly on any rally. Not sure if a low today would mark the end of wave 3/C or 5...debatable I suppose. A bounce below 1670 could be a wave 4. 1670-1685 is probably a wave 2/B. Above 1685 gap fill risks a new high. If SPX breaks today's panic low by much, watch out 1605-1625 Fibs.
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I am going to address a few comments made by members in the last few days. I appreciate the constructive feedback and figured all members might be interested in the responses.

1. Was there only a 1/2 position on the last short trade?
I did state that a 1/2 position would be opened on the large gap below 4hr support on Thursday August 15th and the remaining position would be filled on a 30% retracement. I did not go into detail like I did the last similar scenario when I posted that the short trade was opened at 1671. SPX technically opened at 1680 but that is not a realistic trade level as SPX quickly fell to 1668-1670 in the 4th to 6th minutes according to my data. SPY opened at the SPX equivalent of 1674ish which is more attainable in real-world trading based on my experience, but the opposite occurred last time I gave such an explanation of gap entry point (SPY was lower than SPX in the last case). I do consider SPY when posting a gap entry/exit because that is my preferred trading reference and SPX is technically not a trading vehicle. Then, SPX did fill the gap by about 32% and the previous 1684.83 pivot (potential wave 1/A) by slightly more, so there was an opportunity to go 100% short at 1667-1668. Given the various potential entry points at 1667-1674 (not counting the SPX 1680 print), I thought 1671 was a very fair official entry point. Sure, we can argue +/- but in the grand scheme 1-2pts here or there or even a half-position or two would have minimal impact on the System and I've tried my best to be fair about the numbers because my goal is making money, not impressing people. Regardless, this is one of those things that I'd like to fix in my System if I eventually decide to take it more public. It sure seems like the vast majority of the large gaps beyond s/r are not immediately reversed beyond 4hr s/r again, so the answer may be to either enter 100% on the gap or on a 30% retracement with no 1/2 position ever used. I'll need to study such gaps (not just any large gap...only the ones that break 4hr s/r).

2. Lack of blog comments. Although I am sure that the proprietary nature of my System makes it tougher to follow without multiple daily posts from me, I think the primary reasons for low member comments are (1) I have left the blog unpublic only reaching 40-50 members from a couple of my favorite sites versus other similar sites having hundreds and thousands of viewers (30-60 views per post is typical for my blog with occasional 100+ spikes that I might incorporate into my Turn Score once I have a larger audience), (2) my System and posts are usually pretty narrow in the sense that I almost exclusively discuss SPX technicals as they pertain to my System with occasional market opinion mixed in and (3) I don't do much to encourage or elicit responses. In fact, I have stated several times that I don't have a lot of extra time for posts or comments and don't really want that responsibility unless I decide to take the path towards making this blog profitable.

3. Difficulty in following/understanding my System trades. I do my best to post once per trading day. Sometimes I manage 2 or 3. Sometimes I skip one. I have a full-time job that has peaks and valleys in terms of time demands just like the market, not to mention a large family and some hobbies. My System is also proprietary and I have no plans to give away enough information for members to score things on their own. All that does make it difficult to trade purely based on my intermittent information, but I hope nobody is doing that anyway. I'm just 1 input for you to use...and free! I do attempt to outline the probable changes in Score or trade hours ahead of time. I can understand how it might be confusing to see the System is short while the Score is bullish and maybe I can figure out a way to improve that. Essentially, the Score is used to determine the next trade direction, not immediately change the active trade. The Score basically lets you know when SPX is ripe for a turn, but the System stays with the trend until 4hr s/r is triggered. A Score change itself is not a trigger. Perhaps I should not call the Score bullish or bearish. I'll have to think about that.

Anyway, that covers a few questions and concerns and I need to get back to work. Once again, I appreciate the feedback and am soaking it in with the hopes of one day feeling confident enough in my System and my time to go more public and perhaps profit from it....long way to go.

I would have liked to announce the Proposed New Score as the official Score on my System's 1st anniversary but I have not completed backtesting. Unfortunately perhaps, today there is a discrepancy and SPX made a new low. The New Score is neutral and would have the System short right now while the current Score is ever so slightly bullish and thus I've stretched the stop 0.5% to 1638 as allowed by rule. We'll see what happens. Good fortune.