Current SPX Position: Long at 1655.13 (last short trade was 1671-->1655)
Next Action: Stop at 1638
System Score: 6=Bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=3+3
Proposed New Score: 56%=Neutral=Trend Score + Turn Score=12+44
The System stopped out and went long at 1655 as laid out. The System is officially 1 year old and netted 335pts for a 24% uncompounded unleveraged profit with a 52% win rate. Not bad for an Okie. It could have been a 30%+ profit with tweaks that I am backtesting and ready to officially implement in the coming weeks. The first month and last month were bad but the peaks were larger than the valleys. By the way, while backtesting this week, I already found 2 instances where the SPX 4hr s/r served the System much better for profits than INDU which is the opposite of what we saw over the last few weeks. Still, the divergences seem to matter so I'll find a simple solution for it assuming there is one to be found. For now, SPX needs to rally for 1-2 days to get the technical reasonably overbought again for a System short trade. Good fortune.
Overlay a Fib setup here and you will see that a short is on today until it breaks.
ReplyDeleteLook at fibs, put them up with your indicators and your losses will be reduced.
S2,
ReplyDeleteThings look good for your system. Congrats! However, I would suggest that you modify your results for your last trade (and potentially any others with the same scenario). The system entered that last trade at 1671 with only a 1/2 position. We never got the 30% retracement to enter the 2nd 1/2 position. It would be misleading to count that as a whole 16 point gain. Really should be 8.