Current SPX Position: None (last long trade stopped out 1672-->1679)
Next Action: Long at 1681.29
System Score: 8=Bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=10-2
Proposed New Score: 60%=Bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=48+12
The System is flat. The Score is slightly bullish and on the verge of becoming very bullish. However, if SPX can fall low enough first (1620-1640 would be ideal), there would be room for SPX to bounce or consolidate and reset the technicals to bearish for a probable test of 1600ish for starters. I will try to discuss my discretionary spending analyses in more detail again soon (you can search old posts), but today is smack dab in the middle of the projected time window and the best chance for a market reversal in a long time. An 8-10+% 4-9 week spending-induced drop from 1687 would equate to SPX 1500-1550 by late June or July. SPX 1630ish is a minor support zone while 1590-1600 is a little bigger and 1550ish is very strong. My guess would be a piercing of the 1531/1536/1540 pivots between June 14th and July 29th. Of course, we'll follow the System along the way. Possibly, the Proposed New Score would have caught this downtrend if we had made anything <60% neutral (I've been using <=56%), but I'd have to evaluate all the other times SPX was 58% to see what would have happened. I'll do that when the next 5%+ downtrend completes. Good fortune.
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