Monday, May 20, 2013

Mon 5/20/2013. Daily Update.

Current SPX Position: None (Last long position stopped out 1632-->1664)
Next Action: Go long at 1672.85
System Score: 6=Bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=10-4
Proposed New Score: 58%=Bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=48+10

The Proposed New Score is probably an hour or two from turning neutral whereas the current System Score has almost zero chance of turning neutral on Tuesday without at least a +/-1% move. Could be the 3rd time that the 2 scores deviate at a turning point. The first 2 were small losers for the New Score. Let's watch. I think Tuesday has been a winner for 10-20 weeks in a row, so it would be fitting if the 6+ month bull trend ended with a Tuesday Trap this week or next. Whatever day it happens, the evidence is piling up that a significant top will occur within the next 2 weeks, and discretionary spending as well as the last 3 big downtrends since 2011 point to an 8-12% drop for starters. That's 130-200pts in 4-9 weeks with a 40-80pt drop within the first 2 weeks with a 50-90% retracement before continuing down...statistically speaking in recent history. Hopefully the System will catch most of it, but the bears won't really do serious damage until SPX drops below the 1630ish breakout and tests the previous 1597 pivot area. And, the short-term technicals are not aligned bearish...yet. Good fortune.

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