Current SPX Position: None
Next Action: Long at 1679.52
System Score: 10+=Bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=10+3
Proposed New Score: 80%=Bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=48+32
The Score is slightly more bullish but we have been stuck between 4hr support and resistance for 3-4 days due to the swift drop last Wednesday and slow recovery. Based on the technical setup, it is nearly 100% certain that the System will not go short even if SPX breaches the recent 1636-1640 lows. The rally since Thursday has not been strong enough or long enough to reset the technical indicators to neutral or bearish, so any drop will probably require a 3-day rally or consolidation near the 20dSMA (1640s) for the System to go short. The ideal window for a significant 8-10% top is closing this week based on my discretionary spending analyses, so the 1687 top was likely THE top for a couple months at least unless SPX can rally hard in the next couple days. Almost nobody is expecting the top to be in. Even most people that expect a drop to 1550-1600ish then expect a new high. With consumer optimism at extreme highs and investor optimism too high while economic data are mixed at best, the odds have increased that either the bull market is over OR Tony Caldaro's scenario of 2-3 more choopy wave 4-5s into early 2014 with slight new highs is in effect. Having said that, the setup is currently bullish with SPX less than 2% form all-time highs, so let's see if there's one more quick spurt or not. Good fortune.
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