Friday, May 31, 2013

Thu 5/30/2013. Daily Update.

Current SPX Position: None
Next Action: Long at 1679.52
System Score: 10+=Bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=9+2
Proposed New Score: 76%=Bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=48+28

It looks like SPX is going to test the bottom of a potential 6+ day triangle, and it wouldn't surprise me if SPX bounces a little but makes no breakout until Monday. The pattern could be interpreted as a wave 4 triangle with imminent breakout upward OR a wave B triangle with breakout downward after 1 more small rally to sub-1662 OR a series of 1-2 waves with wave 3 down starting Fri/Mon. While the hourly technicals are bullish, the daily technicals are barely hanging bullish, so the overall Score could turn neutral-to-bearish if SPX falls hard to maybe 1600-1620 and then dead cat bounces near the 20dSMA (1640s). The ideal time window projected by my discretionary spending analyses for an 8-10% top-n-drop is closing Fri/Mon. Any downtrend should last 4-9 weeks. Good fortune.

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