The ideal scenario for the System would probably be 1-2 more hourly closes below 1548.07 without any sizable rebound above 1552 until 3PM+. If that occurs, the System would lower its short-exit and long-entry to 1551-1561 depending on how many hours close lower. That would virtually lock in a 25-35pt gain and reduce the stop loss risk on a long trade. In any case, bears are in pretty good position based on how System scoring works especially if they can keep downside pressure for a few more hours even if price doesn't go much lower. A 1-3 day bounce back up to the 20dSMA area would reset oversold hourly technicals while maintaining the new downtrend...a dangerous setup especially with a potential H&S targeting the February 1485 pivot.
Right now, aside from the obvious fundamentals and technicals and the longer-term cycles, there are 2 major forces one must consider in my eyes to time the top. (1) March/April has been a key seasonal turning point for basically 13 years. (2) My historical discretionary spending analyses favors a new high (or retest) into late May or June. So, this leads me to believe we will not see a 6-9 month straight up or down move like we saw in 2002, 2003 or 2009. The setups that look the most similar are 2000, 2007, 2011 and 2012. The first 2 in that list were the final years of the previous 2 bull markets, so that makes sense and 2011-2012 has a recency advantage. All 4 of them witnessed 100+pt drops followed by 90%+ retracements with 2007&2012 going much higher and the first 3 starting 150-250+pt drops in early June. Putting it all together using those puzzle pieces, an argument can be made that SPX will fall to 1480-1500ish (100+pt drop near the key 1485 pivot in a H&S pattern) followed by a rally to 1580-1700 into early June followed by a larger collapse back to 1500ish (if 1650-1700 is approached) or even the 1350-1400 pivot area (if only 1570-1600 is retested). And, that would kickoff a new bear market. One day at a time though. Good luck.
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