Current SPX Position: Short from 1586.16
Next Action: Stop at 1580
System Score: 3=Bearish=Trend Score + Turn Score=6-3
Proposed New Score: 32%=Bearish=Trend Score + Turn Score=24+8
The Score is now more bearish. The System remains short. However, around 3-4PM Tuesday, the Score could turn neutral if SPX rallies at all and bullish above the 20dSMA near 1563. In tha past year, TRIN and VIX spikes like we saw today usually lead to short-term bottoms within hours or days and often lead to significant bottoms. This time might be different, but I previously laid out the probability for a backtest of 1525-1530 and the possibility of only continuing the medium-size 50-60pt downleg pattern to 1540-1550 before retesting the high. SPX almost reached 1550 today, but I imagine at least 1 more dip is called for over the next few hours or days with a possible bottoming pattern for 1-2 weeks after that. Regardless, the System might be setup to go long at 4hr resistance if SPX can stay green into the close Tuesday, but it will stay short until stopped out. If SPX stays below 1548 (and rising) on the other hand, it may not go neutral-to-bullish for days. Good luck.
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