Monday, February 4, 2013

Mon 2/4/2013. Daily Update.

Current SPX Position: None
Next Action: Go long at 1501.07
System Score: 10+=Bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=10+4

The System was stopped out at 1497 and has no current position. The last 5 weeks started with 2 choppy weeks around 1465 followed by a 1 week uptrend and then 2 more choppy weeks around 1500. Fortunately, the System caught the 1-week trend and the other 4 weeks of choppiness have essentially only zeroed that out. Hence, the System stood at +126pts one month ago and now stands at +120pts despite losing 6 of 7 trades. No system is perfect and every system has its own character. Due to its hourly focus, my System makes its money in the 2-4%+ trends while treading water in other periods. I expect volatility to pick up soon and the System to benefit. For now, the Score remains bullish and the System is looking for a long entry at 1501.

Today's 1.35 TRIN combined with VIX at its upper BB20 and the bullish Score certainly opens up the probability of another 2%+ rally. If that occurs or if SPX decides to finally retest its 1470ish breakout and turn the 1480s into resistance, then the Score should finally switch to the neutral-to-bearish side. Good luck.

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