Current SPX Position: Long at 1512.91
Next Action: Stop out at 1498.48 (will rise significantly if SPX rallies for at least 2-4 hours)
System Score: 10+=Bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=10+2
The System went long shortly after the open this morning. Solidly breaking SPX 1515 by a few points should catapult SPX to 1530-1535 given the lengthy consolidation at 1495-1515 but we'll see. More later. Good luck
P.S. Assuming SPX does breakout and reach the 1520s and likely 1530s, I can see SPX staying up for 3-6+ trading days, because the potential EW 1-2 waves from 1495 took 3 days and the consolidation from 1490 has lasted 11 days and you have to allow for a couple days of downward EW 1-2 action to start the reversal. If that is the case, SPX is still setting up perfectly for a large 2-4 week downtrend starting within the next week or so followed by the year's largest rally in March/April and then the nasty stuff. It's not time to buckle up quite yet, but it's coming fast.
P.P.S. I drew the daily trend lines for the potential 1.5yr EDT. The upper line crosses 1520ish today and only rises a couple points per week. The closing value trend line is at 1508ish. My crude calculations suggest SPX cannot exceed 1535ish without bringing the EDT into question (there is still a potentially larger 3yr EDT), but SPX can reach 1545-1552 in February if the lower EDT line is actually part of a new upward parallel channel. If the EDT upper trend line has much value, I'd suspect a 1-3 day pop above it, backtest it from above, small bounce, then fall back thru the line, then backtest it from below all of which should take the 3-6+ days I mentioned before downside momentum builds. Bear dream?
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ReplyDeleteI removed the last comment. Please no external site references especially ones that sell or advertise. thx
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