Friday, January 4, 2013

Fri 1/4/2013. Daily Update.

Current SPX Position: None
Next Action: Go long at 1465.48
System Score: 7=Bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=10-3

The System allows up to 1% wiggle room (either at a key pivot/level or 0.5% away) on stops when the Score is still on the side of the trade. However, I have tended to keep the stops right on 4hr s/r when the hi/lo is very close. Yesterday, the high was 1465 and 4hr support was 1460 with a long position and a bullish Score, so I placed the stop at 1460. If I had placed the stop another 0.5% lower at 1452-1453, the System would still be in the long trade. As it is, the System will re-enter a long trade at 1465 in which case it would have lost out on a potential 5pts (1460-->1465) but that was a price I was willing to pay after a long run and, if SPX had traded lower, we would have lost an additional 7-8pts (1460-->1452-1453) so I placed the stop for what I thought was the best risk/reward. In the end, we're only talking a few pts difference either way but I'll generally err on the side of protecting profits in extremely oversold/overbought near-term conditions. Good luck.

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