Update Fri 12/31/2012 2PM
Current SPX Position: Long at 1413.21
Next Action: Stop and probably go short at 1404.32 depending on technicals at that time
System Score: 7=Bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=2+5
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Current SPX Position: Long at 1413.21
Next Action: Stop and probably go short at 1398.10 depending on technicals at that time
System Score: 7=Bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=2+5
Whipsaw. The short trade was stopped out for an 11pt loss at 1413 where the System went long. I wouldn't be surprised by 1 or 2 more whipsaw moves before we see a multi-day trend, but this may be an ongoing theme for a couple months. Hopefully, the System can mitigate its losses during the rumor phases and catch most of the real trends. Should be interesting and frustrating. I personally recommend staying out, but I'm letting the System run. Good luck.
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Current SPX Position: Short 1401.79
Next Action: Stop and probably go long at 1413.21 depending on technicals at that time
System Score: 5=Neutral=Trend Score + Turn Score=1+4
No deal. No problem apparently according to futures near break-even. We did get the +/-30pt swing from 1430 that I discussed last week, and now we find out if a larger downtrend has started or not. If no deal is made during the day, I suspect SPX will retest the overnight lows in futures or worse. So, the 1380s is at risk, but a 3of3 EW count would just about require a drop to 1375 minimum and possibly 1343ish. An ABC count just about requires 1400ish to hold. Today is the last day to sell for 2012 taxes, so we'll find out how many people consider this pre-open bounce a gift to exit. It probably depends on how many investors held out hope to the last second for a deal considering SPX has already dropped 3%+ in a little over a week. OPEX max pain for the end of quarter is nearly 30pts higher, so a deal could take us near 1430 while no deal should runaway further. Deal or no deal. Good luck.
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