Sunday, November 18, 2012

Sun 11/18/2012. Weekend Update.

I created a new tab named "Trade History". The System tally is 102pts of SPX profit (nearly 8% without leverage) in less than 3 months with 8 trade wins and 7 trade losses including an 0-for-3 start. Not shabby. I will update the Trade History frequently. I also plan to officially tweak the System rules by end of year as I've described in the last couple months. That will account for large gap-over s/r trades and 50% profit-taking under objective extreme circumstances among other things. For now, the System has no active trade and is waiting for a short trade setup, but I am expecting a test of 1380ish or possibly even 1400-1420 soon. Good luck.

P.S. Overnight futures look pretty good. Of course, they can totally reverse by the open, but, if a bounce is due as I suspect, you could have C=A or 3=1 at 1369 or a 1.62x multiple at 1380ish near the 200dSMA. If the bounce is going to last 2-4+ days as I suspect due to indicators and seasonality, then a Monday rally would likely only be part of 3ofA probably approaching the mid-to-upper 1370s, pulling back without overlap of 1361 and then testing the 200dSMA before pulling back in a larger wave B possibly on Friday as has happened during a couple recent Thanksgiving weeks. If SPX falls much further before bouncing, the System Score may finally get bullish enough to look for a long entry. For now, the System is ready to short and could get whipsawed in the ABC bounce scenario, but my EW trading never proved as profitable as my System, so we'll play it like the System sees it. 

No comments:

Post a Comment