Update 4PM EST: The Score is now a bearish 2. If SPX rallies even a few points in the morning, the Score should rise temporarily to 3-4, but that is still bearish to the System. In addition, I expect the Turn Score to get more bearish by end of tomorrow on any sideways-to-up move, so the Score may be back down to 2 by the time Tuesday ends. Basically, anything under 1400 that breaks 4hr support (currently 1379.52 but will rise to 1381-1382 if SPX rallies Tuesday morning) is almost certainly a short trade. 7 out of 7 of my 15min indicators are overbought, so this rally needs a breather even if it starts from a little higher.
Update 3PM EST: The short entry point has now risen to 1379.52, so the System shouldn't lose too much even if SPX only pulls back in a shallow B wave. The Score is still a very bearish 1.
Current Position: None
Next Action: Short at 1351.05
Score (0-10): 1=Bearish=Trend Score + Turn Score=1+0
Today's rally has dropped the Turn Score to zero while the trend is still solidly bearish. If SPX reaches 1380ish or even 1400-1420 as I suspect, the Trend Score should rise, but the Turn Score should fall, so the Score is likely to stay neutral-to-bearish. So, for the near term, the System will continue to look for another short entry once 4hr support is broken. Currently, that support level is 1351 but it should rise significantly if SPX chops higher for a few hours. I am fully mentally prepared for 1 whipsaw loss due to ABC action off the bottom, but that's part of the game and a flat, triangle or deeper zigzag might produce multiple winners in such an ABC scenario. So, we play the cards we are dealt and not what we want them to be. I did add a new Trade History tab and post over the weekend. Good luck.
Very commendable of you to post past history, you are among the very few who have the guts to do it. Your system seems to be coming along nicely having been tested in tough trading conditions. Only comment I might have is sometimes the lack of visibility of what is the current position. Example, today, at 9:48 you posted being short at 1351.05 and then you posted twice, the last being at market close yet no mention of what was the current position. Obviously it had to have been stopped, but at what price ?
ReplyDeleteIf I may suggest, you should mention the current position and the accompanying stop every time you make an update, it would be clearer !
Thank you for all your effort and keep up the good work !
Trigone5, I'm not sure if it's guts, but thanks for the complements. I always mention if there is a position change, but I will explicitly state the position in every update just to be clear. There may be a misunderstanding about my terminology. "Current position: None" means that the System had no position yesterday. The last short trade was stopped out Thursday. "Next action: Short at 1351.05" means the System will go short if SPX trades down to 1351.05. That never happened yesterday so the current position stayed at none. I mentioned in an update yesterday that the short trade entry (which is 4hr support) rose to 1379.52 and could rise to 1381-1382 this morning if SPX rallies. I hope that makes sense. Let me know if there is some way I can keep it simple but more clear.
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