(Update Thu 9/13/12 2:05PM EST)
Last post today. If my count is correct (that's a big IF), SPX is wrapping up 3of5 from 1397 (at 1457 currently). Then, we'd get a final 4-5, so 1460-1470 is looking like a good resistance target over the next few trading hours into tomorrow morning, and that would likely push S2 back to neutral with the T2 stop at 1445-1448+ thus setting up the System for another "fishing" short trade. But, the System is unlikely to get outright bearish for many days ahead. Good luck.
(Update Thu 9/13/12 1:30PM EST)
I am taking profit on 25% of the long position at 1455 as allowed by the System. The System stop should rise near 1436 at 2PM but I'd be more comfortable if SPX could set another new hourly closing high at 3PM, 4PM or tomorrow morning to raise the 4-candle hourly support to a more profitable position. 1457-1463 would be w5=w1*(1.62 to 2) and 1463/1464 is an OEW pivot, so SPX is running into resistance and has reached the ideal target area for the EDT from 1011 and wedge from 1267. Although open-ended QE may have saved the stock market for Q4, can you imagine what might happen if we get a 5-10% downtrend that fails on the bounce and makes the Fed look impotent? Of course, thoughts like that have gotten me in trouble in the past, so I'll just follow the System's lead enjoying the mystery of what our destination will be. Good luck.
(Update Thu 9/13/12 12:35PM EST)
I was wrong. The Fed did add nearly $500B in QE. This reminds me of situations where mankind has prevented natural forest fires (recessions) only to be overwhelmed by massive infernos (depressions) in the end. Regardless, the System has essentially maintained a bullish stance since 1345. The initial rally to 1446 was likely wave 1of5 of the final surge with the backtest of the ascending triangle being 2of5. If so, all the waves could be complete on Friday in the 1460s +/- (or on Thursday near 1450 if we get an EDT). However, the System rules, and it should tell us if SPX will ride a QE rally through Q4 or if SPX will top on lack of further catalysts and overly bullish sentiment with an election and fiscal cliff looming. Good luck.
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Active SPX Trade=Long from 1438.75
T2=Stop at 1428.32 (lowered due to new slightly bullish score)
S2=6=slightly bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=10-4
Although I personally feel like SPX is to be shorted upon hourly candle reversal, the System has now moved from neutral to slightly bullish as the overbought hourly indicators have been worked off a tiny bit. So, the System is long and will not go short if stopped out today at 1428 and it will not go short on an intra-hour reversal either. I can't trade with my gut any longer. SPX has continued to grind sideways over the last few days forming what looks like a sideways ascending triangle which usually breaks higher. Having said all that, I think S2 will quickly go back into neutral status if SPX rallies to 1445-1450+ for a few hours at which point another short setup could appear. A retest and bounce off key MAs in the 1420s could also provide a new long or short setup. For now, the System is riding long, but I suspect a top this week with 1440-1450 being likeliest and Tony Caldaro's 1464ish level being possible. The Fed announcement is imminent and expectations are high. Be careful. Good luck.
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