Mon 9/10/2012. Daily Update.

(Update Mon 9/10/12 3:45PM EST)
The System stopped out for a 22pt gain and went short at 1434. There is pivot support at 1427-1428 and MA support at 1412-1417.

(Update Mon 9/10/12 1:05PM EST)
Narrow range so far. No position change. Assuming no further delays, my guess based on a little reading is that the German Court will approve the ESM fund on Wednesday with conditions to avoid "printing" inflation. That may be in line with the ECB's recent announcement to buy unlimited "sterilized" bonds. Also, I have to think Apple will add a minor surprise to the iPhone5 announcement since it has been so telegraphed. Both of those things could support another brief SPX spurt. But, those sugar highs will likely be tempered by muted Fed action on Thursday. Since I don't think Ben will launch a $500+ billion asset purchase program with inflation where it is and since I don't think he wants to disappoint the market heavily, I think the Fed will announce an extension to low interest rates, a strong willingness to step in imminently and probably some sort of enhancement to Operation Twist or another twist other than large QE to cover us through Q1 2013 while the fiscal cliff gets resolved. If I am correct, I'd expect SPX to top on Wednesday or Thursday probably at 1440-1470, but we'll play it as it comes. Good luck.
____________________________
Active SPX Trade=Long from 1412
T2=Stop out and go short at 1433.84
S2=5=neutral=Trend Score + Turn Score=10-5

Futures suggest SPX will gap down near 1435 hourly support. The stop and short level is being lowered about 1 pt to the bottom of the congestion level from Friday at 1433.84. I would not doubt 1 or 2 whipsaws before the next downtrend gets underway especially with all the news due this week, but that is the price often necessary to catch the trend consistently. Tony Caldaro is expecting resistance in the 1440s like me but also in the 1460s and near 1499. I think his 5 wave count may get truncated at 3 waves to end an ABC from 667 with C-wave EDT from 1011 but that would still allow SPX to reach 1440-1500. My discretionary spending indicator suggests a significant top with 8%+ correction should not extend beyond this week. We'll play it as it comes. Good luck.