System Suspended

The new System is not working. I'd normally review its trades, tweak it based on lessons learned and move forward. However, my posts and interest have been waning in recent months. Some of that is due to being on the wrong side of things too often and some of that is just due to other life priorities. I've mentioned before that my post timeliness has never been reliable enough to trade consistently despite giving forward-looking trigger levels, and my success rate has not been good at all anyway. But, I strived to provide another perspective or tool for people's toolboxes and clarify and hold-to-account my own analysis and trades. My projection since late last year for a large drop ending in April/May likely at 1600ish or 1750ish was wrong and even the 8%+ drop expected in May based on consumer spending appears likely to be wrong although I'd give that into the 1st week of June. There have been a few cases of smaller 4-5% spending-induced drops late in the bull market like we had SPX 2111-->2026, but that is not too helpful and drops were much larger CY2006-2013+. My previous calls in recent years were likewise on the wrong side a lot more than the right side, although I had a few good runs. I'll take a multi-month breather this summer and enjoy some time with the kids like I've done a few times since CY2005 and revisit things in the fall. I think my long-term research has some value, and the 30-page document I sent out to family and friends in March 2007 warning of 10% upside and 30-60% downside was very prescient. However, we are in more uncharted territory now with unprecedented ZIRP/NIRP/QE/Debt, and the real value of my latest long-term research won't be known until we see if SPX drops down to the 1100s or lower in 2016 or early 2017. My 401K and trades are positioned accordingly. If SPX 1100s are seen in the next year, I won't claim to be a soothsayer as some other people and stats have projected the same, but that scenario would make it worthwhile to revisit my long-term research to see which items might have continued value looking forward. If that scenario does not play out, I'll probably just join the long list of people who don't try to outsmart the stock market. Einstein said insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. To my credit, I've tried multiple systems and strategies but I am pushing the insane envelope for sure. I wish you and your family peace, justice, freedom, happiness and sanity! Good fortune.