Update March 17th, 2016 1:50pm EST: stop/reversal raised to 2050 d to negd, gap, pivot and 0.2% flex. Negd decreasing though. Away from PC...more later.
Update March 15th, 2016 5:30PM EST: No change. FOMC day finally arrives tomorrow. I may make an intra-day change with volatility possible.
| SPX Swing System Trading |
| Trade Date: | 2016-03-08 |
| Trade Position: | Short |
| Trade Entry: | 1992 |
| Trade Stop/Reversal: | 2043 intra-day |
| Trade Profit Areas: | 100SMA at 1999 and pivot low at 1970 |
| Indicator Divergences: | Very Negative |
| Indicator Extremes: | Slightly Negative |
| SMA Setup: | Very Negative |
| Important Events: | FOMC decision Wed March 16th |
| Trade Notes: |
| The System remains short. Without getting too detailed, Thursday's close produced both positive and negative divergences and past results were mixed under that circumstance. I chose to stick with the existing short trade rather than chase the gap as the System does for obvious signals. Friday rallied and a lot of negative divergences developed, so the System will remain short and raise the stop/reversal level to 2043 which is a 2.5% drawdown and not atypical during larger transition periods. SPX has entered what appears to be the final clustering of gap action over the last few months and a rally above 2043 could easily lead to a retest of the 2100+ highs. Cycles, spending and my other technical research as seen in the tab above suggest a new high won't happen. My big picture target remains at SPX 1600 in May but the System will have many twists and turns in between. Good fortune. |
| SPX/SPY Trade History |
| Trade history only includes the initial entry and final exit prices, not any profit-taking and reloading in between, so mileage may vary. |
| Position | Open | Price | Close | Price | Pts | Total |
| Short | 2016-03-08 | 1992 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| Long | 2016-03-01 | 1967 | 2016-03-08 | 1992 | +25 | +87 |
| Short | 2016-02-23 | 1938 | 2016-03-01 | 1967 | -29 | +62 |
| Long | 2016-02-12 | 1847 | 2016-02-23 | 1938 | +91 | +91 |
Any reason why you would raise the reversal level from 2043 to 2050, except that you have been so bearish for so long and so wrong, that you wouldn't want your system to be long at 2043 !? Then again, is it a system or do you just tweak it when you feel like it ?
ReplyDeleteHey Philippe, nice to hear from ya. I did leave a brief note earlier, but I explained things in more depth in my new post if you truly wanted an answer. The System goes both long and short. Good luck.
ReplyDelete