SPX Downtrend Likely...Stop 1967...Target 1905 Minimum, sub-1890 Likely

SPX Swing System Trading
Trade Date:	2016-02-23
Trade Position:	Short
Trade Entry:	1938
Trade Stop:	1967
Trade Profit Areas:	1906 20SMA & gap top, 1885-1890 gap tops and pivots
Indicator Divergences:	Very Negative
Indicator Extremes:	Slightly Negative
SMA Setup:	Very Negative
Sentiment:	Short-term Negative, Medium-term Positive
Important Events:	Friday March 4th Jobs Numbers
System Mechanics:
The System will take partial profits (usually 25%) at trade profit levels and certain extreme indicator readings while reloading on small bounces. The System will reverse its trading position at the stop level and intends to be in the market nearly 100% of the time. All indicator and trade-related information is re-evaluated daily for potential changes. Most trade position entries that occur on opening gaps will initiate a 50% position size with the other 50% on a partial gap fill.
Relevant Research:
My research on the Magic 48%, custom DRSI, ATH retracements, annual reversals and P/E ratios from CY1900 along with exponential parabolas across the last 3 bear markets and cycles from the year 1776 point to CY2016 as a very bad year with SPX 1100s likely targeted at a minimum based on statistics. My consumer spending research points to April 2016 +/- as a likely significant bottom and June 2016 +/- as a likely significant top (this June signal is new). My cycle study combined with the exponential parabola time target, reasonable bear market length, seasonality and US presidential election indicate October +/- is another likely bottom. Other experts I trust with good historical track records, including Tim Woods and Tony Caldaro, have recently called for large bear markets this year and possibly into CY2017. The stair-step Fib pattern I found during the last couple bull/bear markets also indicates a new bear market has started although the Dow annual reversal stats have not kicked in quite yet. And, there is a cluster of key historical Fibs, trend lines and moving averages at the 1750ish, 1600ish and 1100ish levels.
Trade Notes:
The System is fully short. A large correction appears likely in either price or time. I don't know if this is the downtrend that will test or break SPX 1810, but given my research above, the time and price windows for further rally are narrowing fast. My suspicion is that SPX will bounce 1 more time from the SPX 1800-1850 level in the coming weeks but that bounce will be smaller in price and time and ultimately lead to a swift move down perhaps also bouncing briefly from 1750ish before collapsing to 1600 to complete the H&S patterns (1963-->1743-->1823-->1603???), but of course the System doesn't care either way. Good fortune.

SPX/SPY Trade History
To keep tracking simple and avoid the need for intraday comments, trade history below is based on average entry and exit levels which are almost always known before each trading day opens. Trade history does not include any trades around the position for profit-taking and reloading that could possibly improve the profit and risk of each trade.
Position	Open	Price	Close	Price	Pts	Total
Short	2016-02-23	1938	?	?	?	?
Long	2016-02-12	1847	2016-02-23	1938	+91	+91

Chart from Monday