Trend is Down but More Sideways Probable for 2 Weeks

The monthly and weekly trends are down based on my custom swing candle interpretation. The daily trend is neutral-down since the last swing (down) occurred within 3 days of the previous swing as has now happened about 4-5 swings in a row. The hourly score is now about +20% which is only slightly bullish and does not justify going long. I warned that the -100% score heading into SPX 2060 should lead to a 20-30pt pullback but seasonality and the temporary uptrend suggested SPX would then rally to 2077-2104. The actual path fit that projection (2067-->2044-->2082). My call since November for year-end SPX 2059 +/- also played out, although the dip I expected to the 1950s or 1900s never happened. Now, let's see if we get the long-awaited trip down to 1750 and possibly 1600 into April +/- (bottom timeframe projected by my custom spending indicator).


I think the next 2 weeks have a good chance to stay between SPX 2000 and 2080. On one hand, SPX is within striking distance of reversing technicals into bullish alignment. The daily and weekly trend would likely be up if SPX rallies above 2082 which is not that far above especially with new monthly, quarterly and yearly funds entering the picture. On the other side of the coin, the hourly score is not very oversold at all while being in striking distance of the 2044/2005/1993 lows, and the monthly, weekly and daily trends are in alignment to the downside with plenty of room to go before hourlies get extremely oversold. The technical bias is down, but we essentially sit about 40pts above and below key levels that will likely provide support/resistance as SPX approaches them with oversold/overbought hourlies. OPEX max pain for Friday January 15th just before the MLK holiday is currently 2050. Looking back since year 2007, we've had a mixture of January openings. I think the technical setup favors trading between 2000 and 2080 into Jan 15 OPEX, but a break and backtest of those levels at some point in January should setup the next significant trend. 


Happy New Year and good fortune!