New uptrend not confirmed (now confirmed at the Tues close)

Update January 12th, 2016 7PM EST:
The close triggered a new bullish daily trend. To open a new long position, my System requires a bullish daily trend and hourly indicators that are not very overbought. Both criteria are met, so the System will go long at the open unless we see a huge gap-up that eliminates the second requirement in which case it would wait for a pullback. My previous analysis still applies. I favor a test of the 1990s+ in the next few days or week, but any daily bearish swing is probably very bad news until 2000 is decisively broken. Good fortune.
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Although SPX surpassed 1936, my System will only make a new trend call based on the closing daily candle. If today's low is below yesterday's low of 1901, the trend is still down. If the candle is flat or red, the trend is still down and that is one of a few unique rules I have about swing candles. Based on SPY, it appears SPX opened at the equivalent of 1933-1934, so I'd actually like to see SPX close at 1936+ before declaring a new uptrend.


I took a look at the WTIC (light crude oil) chart. It has fallen to $30. It may be heading directly to ~$26 (63-->38=51-->26). However, it could be forming an EDT in which case it may bounce now, overlap $38-40 and then test $26. Interestingly, both those scenarios line up with the 2 SPX scenarios I presented yesterday: (1) SPX bounces 2-3 percent over 2-3 days before testing 1867 or (2) SPX rallies to at least the 1990s and potentially higher for 2-3 weeks before testing 1867 and likely my 1750 or 1600 targets. I am leaning toward scenario #2 but the statistical odds from a couple different angles are 50/50 and Scenario #1 has already been potentially fulfilled today. Either way, as oil approaches $26 in an ABC or EDT, there is a strong chance it will bounce hard correcting nearly a year of oil dropping and that will likely carry SPX higher for several weeks or months. With spending and cycle projections for a significant bottom in April +/-, I think things need to drag out a little further, so that favors scenario #2 or perhaps #1 followed by #2. I'll let the indicators guide me but it's good to have a couple potential roadmaps with a fork in the road. For now, my System is bearish and still recommending selling the rips. Good luck.