Robot Says Next Target SPX 2092ish, 2022ish and/or 1951ish

Update Dec 18th 2015 10:45AM EST:
SPX filled the 2022 gap. I see a few different supports at 2015-2020 and the gaps have typically not been filled by much before a reversal. Hourly indicators are now medium oversold but definitely not extreme yet, so this not a capitulation move yet. I am expecting a sizable bounce due to yesterday's TRIN reading and oversold hourlies, but of course you know I also expect SPX 1993 to be broken soon and probably the 1950s before a Santa Rally. Good fortune.
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Think like a robot. Think patterns. Think numbers and proportions.


I pointed out recently that unfilled SPX gaps have been magnets. (1) On the downtrend to SPX 2019, a new gap at 2099 was created and 2018 was narrowly unfilled. (2) SPX rallied to 2104 narrowly filling the 2099 gap. (3) SPX fell to 1993 narrowly filling a gap at 1994 and creating a new gap at 2052.  (4) SPX rallied to 2054 the day before the Fed decision narrowly filling the 2052 gap and then continued to rally on Fed day.


Seems pretty convincing that unfilled gaps matter...especially recently, right? Now, let's take a look at nearby unfilled gaps that remain: 2092, 2022 and 1951. If SPX can form a bullish reversal on Friday without falling too much further first, it will have a chance to build a Santa Claus rally to 2092+. However, with the weekly trend down, daily trend neutral-to-down, hourly indicators not yet extremely over-bearish, TRIN favoring a bounce but also a retest/break of 1993, my spending indicator favoring Nov3/Dec2 as an intermediate-term top and WTIC/HYG/retail/etc portending bearish economics, I don't expect that to happen.


On the other hand, the unfilled SPX 2022 gap is within spitting distance based on overnight futures. And, SPX 1951 has some numeric convergence. One potential pattern is somewhat an expanding diagonal triangle 2116-->2019 (97pts)=w1, 2104-->1993 (111pts, 14 more than w1)=w3 and potentially 2077-->1952 (125pts, 14 more than w3). Also, 2077-->2048=29pts with 2059-->1953=106pts=3.6x Fib 29pts. And, 2104-->1947=157pts=(2116-2019)*1.62Fib. And, there is an OEW pivot area at SPX 1956 as well as a 62% Fib retracement of 1867-->2116 at 1962. Plus, SPX 1952 was a level matching the next drop in the CY2007 analogy and there is the unfilled 1951 gap, of course.


In summary, I think a decent but brief bullish reversal will start tomorrow, but for various reasons described, I think the SPX 2092 gap will be left unfilled for now while SPX 2022 and 1951 gaps are filled and tested respectively. Good fortune.