We have reached the 1st of October. Before next week, I plan to coalesce and summarize all my long-term research including links, because October still has potential to be a very negative month and Q1/Q2 even more bearish.
I mentioned yesterday that SPX and Dow were moving differently. I find the Dow failure to approach its low as supportive of the fact the final low is not in. I still think a 1-2 or 1-2-1-2 count interpretation from SPX 2021 would synchronize them as I stated yesterday. e.g. wave 1=2021-->1909, wave Aof2=1909-->1953, wave Bof2=1953-->1872, wave Cof2=1872-->1927+ which would form a running wave 2 correction, potentially a 3-3-5 running flat to 1927+ later today.
With 2021-->1909=112pts, if SPX is finishing a running wave 2 correction today, wave 3 down could be shorter than wave 1 but still reach the critical 1822-1851 support zone as 3ofAofY from May 2015. If instead we are in a 1-2-1-2 count, wave 3 could easily reach the 1700s as 3of5of1/A from May 2015. In either case, I am expecting 1700ish (1675-1750) in October.
Bottom line...if SPX breaks back below 1897 or rallies to 1927+ followed by sub-1909, the next downleg has likely begun and it is likely to be a wave 3 breaking well below 1867. If SPX exceeds 1953 or Dow exceed 16465, the 1-2 count is not eliminated but potentially on life support. Buckle up and watch for the levels I've indicated. Good fortune.
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