Remaining October SPX 1700 Scenarios

Now that SPX has rallied above 1950 and in keeping with my base count from the top, I think the options are to count 2020-->1909 as wave A or wave 1ofA or a larger nested 1-2-1-2ofA.

Assuming 1700ish is the destination in October as I've proposed...

• Wave A would likely lead to C=A*2 (or C=A*2.38) in the next 5-10 days in a 5-wave C affair.
• Wave 1ofA would likely lead to Wave A at 1800 +/- 2% in the next 5-10 days followed by further damage.
• Wave 1-2-1-2ofA would likely have the same result as Wave 1ofA except with an extra gyration.

Due to their similar results, we can combine the last 2 counts and for simplicity say that SPX is either in BofY or 2ofAofY from the top. The former scenario would support a bottom in the next 5-10 days in early October. The latter scenario would support a bottom in late October due to more waves to complete.

Due to some extreme sentiment indicators, the quarterly turn, my spending indicator projecting a significant late-October-to-late-November top and cycles among other things, I kinda like the week of October 5-9 +/-. However, that would make for an extremely short ABC of 2-3 weeks versus the previous ABC even if you count from the July 2133 top rather than the May 2135 top. So, that week might fit as the end of an impulsive wave A with late October ending C. Also, from SPX 2133 in July, one could count a 1-week A, 3-week B, 1-week C, 3-week X up to 2021 and then ???? a 1-week A or what could become a 3-week A like the first one???. Who the heck knows? And, I can think of a hundred internal count variations within the 2 counts I favored above.

So, I'd like to step back and consider what's important. First of all, I'm working off the premise SPX is dropping to 1100ish in Q1/Q2 2016 with a 667-retest possible at that time or later. That is based on tons of long-term technical reasons and studies I've documented in previous posts. Second, I'm assuming SPX will make a significant high in late-October to late-November based on my spending indicator and not make its biggest collapse until January+ based on the previous bear markets and typical year-end behavior especially after oversold situations. Third, I've identified the last major Fib support cluster at ~1822-1851 and various trend line and Fib supports near 1700 and 1600 with the Dow annual reversal level of 15341 matching SPX 1822-1851 and Dow's year 2007 top aligning with SPX 1700ish.

If you buy into those 3 assumptions which are backed by technical evidence but certainly not guaranteed, then we should be expecting a large drop to at least 1822-1851 and likely near 1700 in October followed by a more volatile consolidation range into year-end. In EW terms assuming an ABCX into SPX 2021, one sensible projection of everything I've presented would be an A wave drop to 1820 +/- (October 2014 low/Fib support cluster) in early October followed by a dead-cat bounce into mid-October, a drop near 1700 in late October, a rocket-shot rally to 1900+ in late November and then some volatile pattern in the 1700-1900 range into year-end. Of course, there are variations that would fit my bigger picture projection, so we will just monitor the market and see if it stays within my larger thesis. Good fortune.