SPX has broken 2063 swiftly. That is a likely confirmation of the completion of a B-wave triangle (A=2044-->2133, B=2133-->2064, C=2064-->2114, D=2114-->2067, E=2067-->2105). If so, C=A at 2014 which was one of many arguments I gave earlier this week for an initial ~2020 target.
Having said that, SPX still needs to pass 2 more technical conditions for us to feel comfortable a downtrend to 1922-1951 is underway: (1) a failed back-test of the 200SMA near 2075 and (2) a break below 2044. Until 2044 is broken, the triangle could expand and frustrate us for another few weeks. And, Dow can still fall near 17050 and stay within Leading Diagonal Triangle rules. So, if SPX 2044 or Dow 17050 is breached, we are likely in a cascade lower to SPX 2020 on the way to 1950. If SPX bounces before breaking 2044 as I suspect, history suggests it will test the underside of the 200SMA at 2075ish and possibly the intraday pivots of recent days. If you see a bearish, buyers-get-out-of-dodge reaction at the price range 2070-2086, we will likely be on our way to breaching SPX 2044 and Dow 17050 on the way to 1950.
Assuming we get those bearish technical confirmations and we get a bounce imminently and again near 2020 for reasons listed earlier this week, I can layout a potential price path: 2105-->2050-->2075-->2020-->2040-->1950. Good fortune.
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