Thursday, June 4, 2015

Measured Target SPX 2063

The sideways descending triangle in SPX with high at 2135 and 3 low touch-points at 2099 was violated today. Assuming the backtest fails at or just above 2100, the measured downside target would be 2099-36=2063. With the last significant SPX pivot at 2068 in early May and price-volume and Dow support just above that, it seems logical that the 2060s and 2070s will provide temporary support if the breakdown continues. Of course, tomorrow's jobs report will have something to say about the next move and recent bond dislocations increase the risk of a swift move down beyond 2040 support to 1960-2000. It's a high risk environment and the Transports may have broken down and just failed a backtest with significant ramifications. Good fortune.

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