My posts have become more frequent as time, price and pattern further aligned with my SPX projections. My neck is officially stuck out in terms of public and financial position.
Yesterday, I mentioned the HUGE BOW day for SPY. They usually lead to short-term reversals within 1-3 days and sometimes immediately as we see today.
Today, SPX backtested its first trend line break down at 2100ish and there is now quite a bit of price-volume near 2100. The trend line will continue rising and could be backtested again slightly above 2100, but, to my eyes, anything less than 2103 followed by a swift drop would support an impulsive count. A rally to SPX 2103-2114 muddies the count either way, so that might just be what Mr. Market wants to do.
If SPX 2103 holds as resistance, then it is possible that 2126-->2078=48pts has been a series of nested 1-2 waves in which case the heart of a wave 3 down is coming and likely to be >48pts. A reasonably conservative estimate would be 60pts putting SPX near 2040 support (2102-60=2042) which happens to be the equivalent first real support for NYSE too. Then, a back test of 2060 support/resistance would seem normal followed by a series of nested 4-5 waves down to SPX 2000 +/- 1%. That could all happen in a matter of 2-4 days in which case there would still be time for a 2-4 day bounce followed by a lower low into Friday May 15th OPEX +/-.
If SPX exceeds 2103 but does not surpass 2114, the count would be muddied which Mr. Market might like. In that case, I'd probably favor something more like a double zigzag (or flat) lower to 2040ish and perhaps even as far as 1960-2000 into mid-May. If SPX exceeds 2114, the entire move lower to 2078 could still be part of a larger EDT with new all-time highs needed or a 3-3-5 flat could be in play with one more swift impulsive drop to 2040ish. Good fortune.
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