I fully read the FOMC statement. The 2 key sentences to me are...
1. "Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of energy price declines and other factors dissipate"
2. "The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term."
Essentially, that tells you that a bounce in oil prices and a further rise in employment are the key triggers for an interest rate hike. Interestingly, that rate increase could even occur on April 29th. Although "the Committee judges that an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate remains unlikely at the April FOMC meeting", they left the door open based on economic data for an April hike. I don't think they'd want to surprise the market like that, but rumors could swirl until April 29th and various Fed members could begin speaking bearishly to prepare the market for the inevitable.
Key Dates: March 30th spending numbers and April 3rd employment numbers are 2 important near-term economic events. The PPI on April 14th and CPI+OPEX on April 17th may play a small factor but the Fed states they are looking medium-term at inflation (not short-term) with eyes essentially focused on jobs and oil. April 29th is the next GDP figure and FOMC statement with May 8th being the subsequent employment report.
US Stock Market: The drop from 2120 to 2040 looks choppy and corrective and I projected it as the 4th wave of an EDT from SPX 1820 in October 2014. The current rally from 2040-->2090+ thus far looks like an ABCXA. The first ABC rally took 3 days and rose 42pts. To exceed 2120, the second ABC likely needs to reach 1.38x to 1.62x the first...or more. That might also mean it will take more than 3 days. Friday March 20th to perhaps as far as March 30th would be the estimated time window. Of course, the current rally could be viewed as a 1-2-1-2-3. An overlap of 2081 would eliminate that specific count but is not required to support an EDT 5th wave double or triple zigzag to 2120+.
Temporarily, the FOMC statement is being viewed dovishly since the bar was slightly raised for rate hikes, but at the same time the Fed is clearly stating that rate hikes are expected and they WILL come at any time IF/WHEN jobs and oil rise which both seem likely given oversold oil and summer's approach. That is a totally new trading environment and the market could get very skittish every time oil rallies or job reports are positive. In such an uncertain environment with imminent hammer dropping, most smart investors will want to wait for a correction to warrant the risk of investing and to let the dust settle. This appears to fit perfectly with the EDT scenario and a potentially huge 10-20% drop over 1-2 months. After that, I'd expect the market to trade within that range for the remainder of the year possibly poking new highs later this year or early next as rate increases are sold as a positive before the rug is pulled when the economy can't stay strong without extreme accommodation. Good fortune.
No comments:
Post a Comment