10% Move Starting in 2-4 Weeks. Which way?

First, I will repost the beginning of my post on February 3rd...
"One proprietary signal I've tracked since 2007 is monthly discretionary spending. It has been highly successful at projecting tops 4+ months in advance and bottoms 6+ months in advance with the extent of most moves exceeding 8% while a few were 4-5% or 20%+. I mentioned around November 1st that there was a new bottom signal for late April-early May. There was an immediate trend reversal the following month projecting a top late March to mid April. When such back-to-back projection months occurred a few times in the past, the top/bottom either inverted or there was a rapid 4-5 week drop like Sep/Oct 2014.

Based on that history, the slightly favored projection would be a rally (or perhaps sideways/EDT action) into late-March/early-April followed by an 8%+ 4-6 week drop. The alternate projection would basically be the opposite: an 8%+ drop into late-March/early-April followed be a 4-6 week rally that may or may not make new highs. Those 2 opposing projections might seem worthless, but one could interpret that to mean there is a safe bet for a strong 8%+ reversal once you see a capitulation move ending between late March and early April perhaps using one's own indicators to identify technical extremes in that timeframe."

Since that time when SPX was bottoming at 1980ish, I have been favoring the EDT scenario from October SPX 1820. The subsequent rally to 2020 and current drop to 2040 have setup a potential 5th and final EDT wave to 2020+. ~1820 origin-->2090 w1-->1980 w2-->2120 w3-->1940? w4--> 21020+ w5.

So, this can go 2 ways.
(1) If that EDT scenario plays out, we'll see new highs in the next few weeks followed by a 4-6 week 10-20% COLLAPSE. Risk/reward would be awesome at 6:1 (300:50) since wave 5 shouldn't be longer than wave 3, so ~2178 would be a hard stop and 2120-2160 most realistic with an initial target of ~1820. In this case, the March 18 Fed statement may be a temporary relief/hiccup in some way but not enough to stop a rate hike in June/September which will cause the market to get more jittery. It may be March 30th spending numbers that lead to the top and April 29th GDP/Fed that leads to the bottom.
(2) If instead SPX continues below or near 1980 for the next couple weeks, I suspect we'll get a monster rally to new highs and possibly well beyond into May.

I still favor EDT scenario #1 in which case I'll be shorting at SPX 2120-2130+ with hard stop at 2179 and profit taking near 1980 and 1820, but, in scenario #2, I am prepared to go long near 1980 or with extreme bottoming indicators in that region with a 2% stop and 8-10% profit target. Good fortune.